Chads Drunk on Coronavirus
Jan 26, 2020


Just as Stonkies WW3 Soleimani hysteria fades, Coronavirus emerges as the macro trend that will slay this bull market once and for all


WSB is hopping on the Coronavirus train.

Does this present a market opportunity? Here are some thoughts from the community:

/u/jooglord

NVAX MAKING CURE FOR CORONAVIRUS  

/u/dbarbera

There is a reason NVAX was up 60% premarket hours before making any sort of announcement. Their peak while the market was open was lower than the peak during premarket. The market priced in a 60% increase in NVAX's just because a coronavirus is starting to spread. Also, coronaviridae is an entire virus family, not a specific virus. Do not make any assumption that INO's vaccine in clinical trials will do anything for this new one. Just like there are different Hepatitis vaccines for the different viruses in that family, it would likely be true here.   /u/DGUWYWMFWYWN

I understand how strains work. NVAX hasn't been dealing with any coranovirus since 2014 and never got to clinical trials. INO at least has clinical trials. Sure it's not the same virus, but they're probably more capable than any other company at getting there.   /u/dbarbera

These different coronaviruses are such a higher level than "strains". There will never be a vaccine the works against all coronaviruses. Also, NVAX didn't go to clinical trials with MERS because there is/was no reason to, it isn't a marketable vaccine. There have been only ~2300 total confirmed cases of MERS since it was discovered nearly 10 years ago. They developed a candidate which will go through trials if MERS were to actually spread faster. Emergency vaccines get streamlined and skip the major part of the clinical trial process. Developing the viable candidate is 90% of the work.

Protective equipment are the picks and shovels of the Coronavirus gold rush:

u/sheuv

$APT makes protective equipment and tends to do well in outbreaks. It shot up yesterday, but pulled back a bit today (nice for an entry). $MMM makes masks that get sold in large numbers during wildfires and outbreaks, but might be too diversified to be affected too heavily.

But MoonshotYacht says there’s nothing to fear:

  I hope it’s transmitted sexually. That way no one here will get it.  

  ...and pelagicyak thinks that Short Pelaton is the play:

 

Why no reporting on transmission pathways? Host range will dictate outcomes. Limited disease vector coronavirus can only spread through latin american beers. Dos Equis, maybe Modelo. Easy to contain, though may perhaps be worth shorting LIME. If this can make the Jump to White Claw, we may be looking a pandemic that can decimate CHAD and BECKY. Short PTON

1_26_20_7day_chatter

But, as we can see from this graph, the usual suspects are still the most talked about. Over the last 7 days, SPY, SPCE, TSLA, AMD, NFLX continue to be the major focus of conversation. Whether this lack of chatter about MMM, NVAX, or INO presents an opportunity is an exercise for the reader.

How the market reacts is yet to be seen. Stay tuned stonkies!