ChatGPT own analysis on Open AI deals
OpenAI’s $300 B+ valuation looks detached from reality. Its market share is slipping as Google (Gemini), Meta (Llama 3), Anthropic (Claude 3.5), and Chinese AI firms erode dominance. ChatGPT growth has stalled, and enterprise users increasingly prefer cheaper or open-source options. Reported revenues (~$12 B annualized) are inflated by credits and commitments, while compute and infrastructure costs remain massive, leaving little profit. High-profile “deals” with Nvidia, SoftBank, and Broadcom are largely optics and supply pre-purchases, not genuine cash inflows. OpenAI’s moat is thin—its models, GPUs, and APIs are now replicable. The CEO’s bold “AGI” and chip-supercomputer announcements sustain hype, not fundamentals. In truth, OpenAI runs on storytelling, investor FOMO, and strategic signaling rather than proven, profitable business growth—making its current valuation hard to justify amid intensifying global competition and rising operational burn.
I get what you're saying, and my experience is totally the same. But.. when I really think about it, I find my prior feelings of conviction tend to grow in posterity when there's a positive result.. and vice versa for not-so-great results.
If you can just manage to cut out the:
a) fomo
b) 'its already ran so must drop'
c) 'its already dropped so must rise'
and see what's left.. it helps alot.