FiscalNote Holdings Inc - Class A
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About FiscalNote Holdings Inc - Class A
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An important note is none of the monies can be fake internet money. Second is they still give you the warning and will flag you. No problem if you stay above the limit, drop below it and you will be restricted for whatever the timeout period is.
TBH, I think Celsius holding stock is overvalued. based on follow reason 1. according to their annual 10k posted yesterday. majority of their sale is link with Pepsi (they have new agreement with Pepsi), over 69% of their AR. Under this agreement they issued 1.5 million preferred share in exchange for cash proceed, 550 million book value (fair value is 832.50 million), the preferred share required Celsius to pay a 5% dividend, to me this is like a collateral just in case shit go south. Moreover, · “The revenue elements of the Pepsi Arrangement consisted of (i) $227.8 million in payments received from Pepsi under the Transition Agreement, this money is used to terminate fee with former distributors. · (ii) a $282.5 million implicit payment made to Pepsi by Celsius, representing the excess fair value over issuance proceeds received for the Series A Preferred Stock. As a result, the revenue recognition method is somewhat in question here Moreover, it is very important to note in their annual 10k, Item 9A Control and Procedures. “material weakness in internal control over financial reporting continues to exist as of December 31, 2023 with respect to the following processes as the result of the ineffective design and operation of business process level controls: (i) accounting for revenue recognition, (ii) (ii) accounting for promotional allowances, and (iii) (iii) accounting for inventories. 2. I have checked previous annual report, and apparently, the material weakness in internal control over financial reporting is a on-going issue for over 4 years now. This is significant, it poses a question that if you want to invest in a company that has a weak internal control over their financial reporting ? what is the possibility they manipulate earning and massage the number, hypothetically speaking, evidence using during audit is not reliable at all 3. When compare Celsius to Monster beverage, Celsius is more expensive than monster why ? 1. PE of monster is 37.89 vs 59.17 2. Profit margin monster 22.84 vs Celsius 13.54 3. Operating margin monster 25.08 vs Celsius 25.39% 4. Monster has bigger market cap vs Celsius. 5. Monster price per book 7.39 vs Celsius 73.51 6. Monster % short of float 2.04% vs 38.04% when you take a look at put option expiry in Jan 2025, the cost of put is high, for example, Put with strike price at 65 at 8.00, Implied Volatility = 53.43% ​ As a result of the above, I think the market tries to price in price decline. Conclusion I have not taken any short position or buy a put option on this bad boy yet. but it is interesting to see how it turns out. Words of wisdom, "you can be right but the market will stay irrational longer than you think". so if you decide to take a put position, please have a long timeline, and buy put close to ITM
On another note. I just looked at Fiskers earnings call q&a with their stock holders…fucking brutal. People are very unhappy. And apparently the car they offered up for review, the Ocean, was horrible. Not looking good. They post earnings tonight. Rough day at the Fisker camp.
Should probably note that I’m about to get shredded here lol
Note to self : Mara is a regarded stock that has no sense of being on the market but here we are
I looked at their previous two earnings report and came out with the total opposite opinion. Disney is actually outperforming expectations. The whole "Disney brand is flopping" is not true, especially when some tons of its movies were among the most streamed last year. They have been consolidating the debt from the Fox merger and it's been reduced significantly. On top of that, they are building up their cash on hand, another signthat the business is doing well. If that wasn't enough, they announced a dividend and increased its payout. On another note, they just sealed a deal with Epic Games, which is freaking huge. Their video game adaptions are highly anticipated and the ones that have come out have sold extremely well in the past couple of years. Their financials are looking really good and their streaming side of business is actually set to become profitable for the first time this year. They already said they see the problem with the movie budgets which they said they will be fixing, along with the quality of movies. I really don't understand why people think Disney is in a bad position.
On a serious note, where was the stop loss, dude? Did you freeze up hoping that it would go back up and just couldn't bring yourself to close the position or what...?
Then circle back , and improve upon KPI relevance , on another note have a quick sidebar
The difference between a smooth flight and catastrophe is in a Post-it note. https://www.npr.org/2024/02/28/1234509115/boeing-737-max-8-9-faa-90-day-deadline-safety-quality-control
Pulled a costanza, went out on a high note
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