It's not about a "recession." It's about whether interest payments on the federal debt become a spiraling and unsustaintably large part of the federal budget, risking either a sovereign debt crisis or austerity or massive tax hikes. Any of those would cause a recession. But they will come first. it's not an instant thing. It's more of a the longer this goes on (debt turning over at higher rates) the sooner the crisis will come.
To understand this you need to think about the mechanics of how the US debt is financed. It's financed through treasury bonds with fixed terms. So, what happens when a 10-year t-bill comes due? It's not like we suddenly cut the budget or raise taxes. (That would be crazy). Instead, we simply issue a new bond. So when A's bond is due, treasury issues a new bond at auction, B buys it, and treasury uses the money to pay A. Life goes on. But what happens when the old bond was at 2% interest and the new bond is at 4.5% interest? Suddenly there is a real change. The total interest on the federal debt being paid out increases. It keeps increasing so long as old bonds keep turning over into new bonds with higher rates. The longer higher rates go on, the more bonds turn over every day into the higher rates, the more interest we have to pay, the more fucked we become.
At a certain point, it will all become impossible to keep up -- interest payments will be so high we'll have to either dramatically raise taxes, dramatically cut spending, or just do nothing and turn into Greece.
Alternatively, a fourth option is to just lower interest rates -- inflation be damned -- and inflate away the debt. A "benefit" of high inflatino is that it makes the weight of past debt comparatively less burdensome. So a good bout of hyperinflation is also possible, although that would likely be pretty painful.
I genuinely believe we could be forced into hard choices in about five years. Party has been going on for a long time -- because rates were near zero and debt didn't matter -- but the bell is starting to toll.
Bought SBUX high and sold low and shortly after they replaced CEO. Bought a bunch of $80 and $85 NKE calls and it started to take a dive so sold those. Of course they replace CEO and thing pops. Total regard. Can someone pls tell me what to buy? I promise I won’t sell like a b&@ch this time
No you just need to be awake at opening and be ready to pay the new price. Or You can use the estimate feature to see the estimated cost that the overnight increase in value created.
For example let’s say stock a is at 10, and option b is at .10, so 10$ each. Then the stock overnight goes to 15. On robinhood it will say the price is .1 but that’s only because option don’t move overnight. As soon as it opens it will reflect the “actual” value of the option, let’s say 1, or 100$ each. It doesn’t mean you can place a .1 order at 8am est and think it’s gonna fill cause that option no longer worth .1, it’s worth 1 it’s just that you aren’t allowed to trade it till open.
Basically, no free lunch. If it was as easy as looking at which stocks went up overnight and placing arbitrage options plays at open everyone would be doing it. If you decided to just buy the option at whatever price after the 50% overnight on the stock and the stock didn’t go up further
you’d just end up actually losing money to theta.
In order to make money on options on lunar from yesterdays jump you’d need to have bought it yesterday before close, or earlier. There’s no way to be waking up on the morning and making this play