It is a little sus his crypto is tanking though 😂 There might be a bear case if we do pull out too. Gulf states might be upset about the mess we leave. They’re heavily invested in our markets despite our relatively low growth potential, which makes one wonder if there’s a quid pro quo

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We fucked off in Afghanistan. Vietnam too.  Sometimes the best move is to punt. You win some, you lose some.  Bibi swindled us on this one. Lesson learned, don't trust Israeli promises of regime change.  The middle east is always a shit show and cannot be unfucked, just contained. Take the L with dignity and move on. Mostly we just need to flood the zone with cheap drones and the Gulf states need to build more pipelines to diversify their distribution.

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Both sides are stalling to save face. If trump doesn’t get a better deal than the one USA had in 2018 and get the strait opened back up unconditionally, he’ll be ridiculed. Can’t strike Iran to smithereens because it’s going to kill civilians. Risky to attack their infrastructure because they threaten to blow up gulf regions oil infrastructure. Can’t do a ground invasion because Iran is too big and soldier will die and he’ll lose more support. On the other hand, Iran’s export and income is dwindling. Middle east, Europe and asia is suffering. Middle east ain’t making money because can’t ship oil. Oil and gas is getting more expensive day by day. They obviously aren’t happy about it. Puts more pressure on both sides One side will pop first

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Nah, unless they secure gulf region’s infrastructure, war isn’t going to continue

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And lo, another airlift to the gulf

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If Iran follows through on its threat to bomb gulf oil infrastructure, we’re in for a hell of a celebration Sunday evening.

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Barrel shortage from Gulf, SPRs already tapped, no resolution to said gulf crisis in sight (if you actually read each side's terms), possible escalation to infrastructure, American blockade, threat to Red Sea routes

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