Cue the “I stopped using Facebook so long ago, it’s just ads now” people who have been saying this for years. Just goes to show that anecdotal evidence is useless.
These guys make 40-50B a year in profits inclusive of moonshots. Their apps are always in the top ten list of most downloaded apps on a monthly or annual basis. They aren’t going anywhere.
I just buy shares, on a pullback I’ll buy more.
On top of this I think their glasses are getting really cool. The Raybans with the AI are the cost of AirPods and 100x times cooler.
Meta will be fine. They’ll likely beat top line based on how much Temu and Shien will spend. With all these guys, it’s going to come down to cost control, user growth and guidance. Secretly hoping Snap does well given I’ve seen some big players do well there on DR ( which is interesting )
How were you measuring attribution for downstream outcomes in that large of a marketing spend on YouTube?
We run a similar size marketing budget (assuming you have similar spends on other major channels too) and people on our team wanted to scale YouTube off of anecdotes of pre/post. As it scaled it looked more mixed though, so we stopped.
Attribution there is really difficult, with such a large marketing machine with so many moving parts across many channels, and when YouTube direct conversions are so low. It of course drives indirect conversions, but how much of that would have come anyway in the counterfactual without YouTube impressions?
Did you do A/B on geo splits and cut YouTube leave/eliminate spend in equivalent geos, check impact on the rest of top of funnel? We did that on FB to calibrate our understanding of the economics that bounce back into indirect conversions but I don't see anything about people doing that kind of experiment with YouTube, seems to be less mature of a platform. I guess we could manually draw geo bounds and do it ourself but seems annoying.
Without that I don't see how you could have the level of confidence necessary to invest $35M in the channel, at least by the standards for confidence we try to use in perf marketing when we allocate that much capital. You might also just have more risk tolerance than us though.