Might sell today, depends on the pace. If it doesn't get within 0.3% I'm out

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Pretty normal to pace around in between sets? It is either that or sit and stare at your phone

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u/Ancient_Sort5820 You asked for sources, earlier today I wasn't at desktop sorry. **TL;DR - Credit spigot is wide open, conditions loose. With money printer back on, acceleration and higher Fed balance sheet expansion coming soon, likely no end to the party for a long time.** SPX 7500 by EOY as a bare minimum. Lending soaring: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1RxwN&height=490 Corporate issuance records: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-29/us-high-grade-bond-sales-top-200-billion-in-record-yearly-start https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-02/global-bond-sales-reach-1-trillion-at-their-fastest-pace-ever Record breaking AI debt issuance: https://www.mellon.com/insights/insights-articles/record-breaking-ai-related-debt-issuance-in-2025.html Financial conditions continue 3+ years trend of loosening: https://i.imgur.com/zQzK2x2.png Excess reserves (liquidity) are steadily rising again: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1PdMc&height=490 Repo markets calming down: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1PdMg&height=490 Spreads ultra tight: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1PdMD&height=490

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On pace to be worst in a long time

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Futes on pace for NASDAQ to open at +10%

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> Quick search shows solar cells in space achieve about 30-40% efficiency compared to 20% for terrestrial That clearly doesn't account for either lack of atmosphere, or the fact that the panel can face the sun 24/7. > solar cells for space use are orders of magnitude more expensive than terrestrial cells ?? false. They literally need less materials. Don't need casing or glass. Easier to produce. See my other comments. You can fit somewhere between 30-60 racks in a Starship, even with the solar panels and radiators included. > you're outlining completely disposable data center sats Yes. That is 100% true. They will be disposable. But think about the fact that GPUs effectively are fully depreciated after 3-4 years anyway by accounting standards. > expensive supply chains What is an expensive and bottlenecked supply chain is energy generation on the ground. It's not just expensive on the ground with energy costing 10-20x more, needing giant batteries, more transformers, being a drain on local municipalities, land rights, acquiring and building the buildings, cooling, etc - but the main #1 problem is that the supply chain on the ground **cannot** scale at the pace AI data centers will. Period. Unless we cut the regulations in half overnight for nuclear power, and overnight dedicated hundreds of billions of dollars to increasing the grid by 50% - not happening. Building transformers is a big bottleneck right now. So are batteries, which are needed for large data centers to smooth out usage. Of course space has issues and drawbacks, but it beats out doing it on the ground long term. Long term being 3-5 years out. If you are a city/county - are you going to let a data center be built near you? Create a few jobs temporarily, just to have your electricity rates go up 30-50%? No you won't. You'll either tell the AI company to fuck off, or force them to cover the increase price in electricity. Building on the ground is going to get worse and worse. Acquiring land and building the infastructure needed for data centers will be the bottleneck. Acquiring GPUs won't be the hard part - using them effectively will.

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The premarket rally is classic dead-cat-bounce behavior after 3 days of selling. Here’s what hasn’t changed: The core problem: Big Tech just announced MASSIVE AI spending increases - Google doubling capex to $175-185B, Meta to $115-135B, Amazon to $200B (vs $147B expected). The market is questioning when/if this spending actually translates to profits. The rotation is real: Money is flowing out of tech into value stocks at the fastest pace since 2008. Only 19% of S&P 500 stocks outperformed last year, but that’s jumped to 57% this past month - shows tech leadership is breaking down. Weak macro backdrop: Jobs data is terrible - job openings at lowest since Sept 2020, private sector added only 22K jobs in January. This is not an environment where speculative AI spending gets rewarded. Technical damage: Nasdaq hit new 2026 lows yesterday. Once support breaks, momentum often accelerates lower. Software stocks down 28% from highs as AI automation fears intensify. One green premarket on low volume doesn’t reverse any of these trends. We likely need 4-8 weeks minimum for the market to digest these capex numbers and see if AI revenue growth justifies the spending. Short-term bounces are selling opportunities until proven otherwise.

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If everything were equal I'd agree Tesla vertical integration of compute, sensors, battery, etc is going to be really challenging to compete with. For your timelines yeah they're definitely making progress I'm excited to see it. But if you look at how waymo rolled out their vehicles 3-5 years ago they're at roughly the same place and pace after mapping + starting the test fleet with safety drivers. For the record for myself I work in this industry on the AI. I'll speak in third person here but all these companies trade engineers so we have a pretty good sense of the stack and how things work at each. Some well understood things: waymo is quite ahead but they have a huge problem with platform cost. waymo can actually run completely fine without the lidar (just camera + radar) in what would seem a completely normal ride. But it's less safe in the long tail cases. Their safety case makes waymo keep the lidar. Tesla has extremely impressive technology. The reason why their tech seems so smooth is because they don't handle the super rare edge cases that other companies tune so highly for. E.g. they're so rare that you'll run into false positives which will disrupt the smoothness of the driving, but they would be safe in a very rare scenario. You could actually start to see Tesla working on solving them with a lot of the phantom breaking (e.g. leaves) that has been happening in v14. Shows real progress! Tesla also doesn't have a good way to validate their performance like waymo does. E.g. it's hard to open up their end to end driving model and run it in simulation to evaluate scenarios you would only run into in 10s, 100s or billions of miles. I've ridden in the Wayve cars and it feels exactly the same as a Tesla. I don't know who is actually better because neither of them release data In the end I all hope they win and scale so we get a bunch of cheap rides. Everytime I drive for more than 10 minutes I think why the hell isn't an AI doing this for me already

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WTH is up with SITM, they gap up on acquisition, plummet back to ~340 at open, then shoot up to ~428 in 20 minutes And the acquisition itself adds 900 million in debt to a company that did 82.6M in earnings? And in addition every article seems to call it a 1.5 billion dollar acquisition, but they are also creating over 4 million new shares so it ends up being closer to a 3 billion dollar purchase at their current price and diluting their current share holders by 16% Idc that they been their earnings estimate, shit seems over bought and they’re going full hopium on data center buildout to keep its current pace for years and years

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If SPY can keep up its last 30 minute pace we open at 751 let’s gooo

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