This is what the robot said Let's go through each point you raised: 1. **GDP Growth**: You mentioned a GDP growth rate of 1.6%, which is correct. While this is the slowest rate since before the 2008 crash, it's important to note that positive GDP growth indicates an expanding economy, not a recession, which is defined by consecutive quarters of negative growth. This slower growth does point to an economy that is cooling but not contracting [oai_citation:1,Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)](https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-advance-estimate). 2. **Job Market Growth**: The figures you cited for job creation seem to be a misunderstanding. There's no indication that job creation was expected to be as high as three million in a quarter. Recent reports show that while job growth has slowed, it is still positive, which contributes to ongoing employment opportunities, albeit at a slower pace than before [oai_citation:2,2024 Current State of the Union: US Economy](https://usafacts.org/state-of-the-union/economy/). 3. **Fed's Inflation Target**: The Federal Reserve aims for a 2% inflation rate over the long term. Recent reports show that inflation has been around 3.5% as of March 2024. While this is above the target, it doesn't necessarily indicate a failure of policy but rather the challenges of managing post-pandemic economic conditions and external factors like energy prices [oai_citation:3,May 2024 Fed Meeting: Rates Hold Steady | J.P. Morgan](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-may-2024) [oai_citation:4,Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2024](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/). 4. **Credit Card Defaults and Charge-offs**: Indeed, there have been increases in credit card defaults and charge-offs, which could signal financial stress among consumers. This is a point of concern, suggesting that not all segments of the population are experiencing economic recovery equally [oai_citation:5,State of the US consumer | Deloitte Insights](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/consumer-pulse/state-of-the-us-consumer.html). 5. **Consumer Spending and Loan Stress**: You noted rising everyday prices and the impact on consumers, which is supported by data showing increased spending pressures, especially in housing and energy. However, overall consumer spending has been holding up, driven by accumulated savings from the pandemic period, though this is expected to normalize in the coming years [oai_citation:6,State of the US consumer | Deloitte Insights](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/consumer-pulse/state-of-the-us-consumer.html). 6. **Fed's Monetary Policy and Housing Market**: The Fed has indeed kept interest rates steady recently, suggesting a balancing act between not stifling economic growth and controlling inflation. Housing market adjustments, such as changes in first-time buyer interest and housing market times, are local and can vary widely across different regions. These issues do not necessarily reflect Federal policy failures but rather localized market adjustments and broader economic conditions [oai_citation:7,May 2024 Fed Meeting: Rates Hold Steady | J.P. Morgan](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-may-2024). 7. **Employment Patterns and Part-time Work**: There's a noted increase in part-time employment and underemployment, which could be indicative of an economy that isn't robust enough to support full-time jobs universally. This does reflect a shift in employment patterns, possibly driven by changing business needs and technological impacts [oai_citation:8,2024 Current State of the Union: US Economy](https://usafacts.org/state-of-the-union/economy/). In summary, while there are certainly areas of concern, such as credit health and part-time employment increases, the broader economic indicators like GDP growth and overall employment figures do not currently support the view that the U.S. is in a recession or experiencing stagflation. It's a nuanced picture with both positive aspects and challenges.

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They're obviously full of dog shit, all you have to do is look at the CPI reports and annual Financial reports it's pretty obvious that they're lying about inflation rates and that the problem is only going to get worse because the deficit just continues to grow at a faster pace than the revenue increases. If they continue on this path forever it's not a matter of if the US will default, it's a matter of when.

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Just enjoy the fun, it's mostly temporary. It's a nice change of pace and I love seeing everyone jump on together.

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There are a lot of us who do not have the means from our work to keep up with the pace of spending and consumption. Much less the prices of just basics. For a lot of us, we are left hoping for some kind of collapse, hoping we can then keep up. Unfortunately, we lower income folks will be the grease that feeds the machine when it does fail and needs to be brought back to life. We will be consumed by the machine as it comes back to life. Two choices in this America of 2024: be rich, or be nothing. Forgotten. Used up.

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Change of pace. Don’t sleep on BABA earnings

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There won't be a share left to sell at this pace.

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Yeah but honestly you would have to be very good to just outperform the market and then to outperform by that pace you would have to be a genius which is who died

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Okay, I'll play this hypothetical. I believe U.S equities are in a bubble for a variety of reasons. The main reason I believe we are in a bubble is due to over optimism regarding rate cuts masking the fact that we're seeing the early stages of Stagflation(Inflation stagnant while unemployment increases at an accelerated pace). I think the futures market has incorrectly priced in the fact that we are likely to see rate hikes before cuts. Another strong factor contributing to my belief that we are in a bubble is the extreme emphasis on AI. Many tech companies have rallied around AI while the only one seeing substantial returns is NVDA, the one that sells the shovels. The Black swan that will cause this to burst will be the Office sector of CRE going under triggering a massive recession. Also, this is the longest inverted Yield curve ever seen, at some point something something's gotta give. Asshats on reddit aren't really potent to the thesis but I believe they show how overly optimistic the market is. I would consider buying spy once we bounce off the 200 day MA at about 410 but possibly lower depending on market conditions. Thank you for coming to my autistic rant

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Popularization of 401k plans ensures a steady inflow of huge amounts of liquidity into the stock market. Our population also grows at a rapid pace. This stock market is not in a bubble - it reflects the population and wage growth over the years!

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Fear would be the analysis in the scenario you presented that goes from calls to puts. The fear of pullback compounding into greed. There will always be pullbacks. Nothing in life moves at a linear pace. Trading is no exception. But I agree with you on timing pull backs without having fundamental concrete reasons. OP didn’t check their emotions. That prevented them from checking their thesis: 1) why am I swinging to the other side of the trade? 2) is my thesis still correct? 3) did the stock fundamentals change? 4) did the market dynamics change? 5) do I know my exits? And so on and so forth. Losses are healthy. It’s something every trader has to accept as it is inevitable no matter how terrible the losses are. This is a very good loss for OP in my opinion. It’s making them realize about the importance of the psychology of trading. It separates the profitable from the unprofitable.

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