Why do you think the FED will cut rate in September ? I feel like his first cut might be in Nov.

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Iwm hit 244 on Nov 8 2021, it's 10% below ath

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> this is more like a correlation != causation case Not even. OP has either been smoking crack or they're full of it. Here is what the [actual data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?.neo_opt=0) says: |Date|Jul|Sep| --:|--:|:--| |1988|-0.5%|**4.0%**| |1992|**3.9%**|**0.9%**| |1996|-4.6%|**5.4%**| |2000|-1.6%|-5.3%| |2004|-3.4%|**0.9%**| |2008|-0.7%|-9.4%| |2012|**1.2%**|**2.4%**| |2016|**3.5%**|-0.1%| |2020|**5.3%**|-4.1%| |2024|-0.8%|| It only goes back to 1985, but that's plenty far enough back to completely refute OP's claim. That said, from 1985-present, September has been the worst month on average, by far (this includes all years, not just election years): ||Mean|Median| :--|--:|--:| |Jan|1.1%|1.6%| |Feb|0.3%|0.9%| |Mar|1.0%|1.6%| |Apr|2.1%|0.9%| |May|1.0%|1.2%| |Jun|0.4%|0.2%| |Jul|1.1%|1.4%| |Aug|0.1%|0.2%| |Sep|-0.5%|-1.0%| |Oct|0.1%|1.8%| |Nov|1.2%|2.4%| |Dec|2.4%|1.5%|

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In 2016, July was pretty toppish until Nov. Just saying...

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I think you will be fine. I hold 9/20 125c and 135/138c Oct and Nov and don’t enjoy looking at them right now, but am not worried.

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Election year market will rip; seasonality chart shows end of July is always bad….August early it will rip back to Nov is my guess…a 3% pullback after that rip is healthy; most of the people calling or it are now speaking of doom….calls mid August in the few days is play …been wrong by before but seen some August.l spy and qqq call flow in millions hitting

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The last time Nasdaq fell -8% in less than two weeks was Nov 2022. Then it rocketed +13% three weeks later. It’s important I share this detail with my fellow degenerates. Good luck 🍀

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Yeah and as usual stocks will rip once they announce the winner, doesn’t matter who it is bc big business wins either way, one hand washes the other and all that. You could sit out until nov, throw down 20k on spy weeklies a few days before winner is announced, and have a huge year if that’s all you did

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I’ve the same plan on Sept/Oct/Nov 125/135/138c. Hope I don’t have to hold all of them through, though.

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Nah not yet. Rug pull timming is after Nov election 

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