Hey I have a data science background. This is good and entertaining fluff, but if you know what you're looking at, there are important things missing and some things that look good but don't make sense. I give him 4.8/5 for making it look important. For example: He has two time series (S&P500 and the bonds) and he compares them to many possible offsets. This is called cross-correlation analysis. It's a real thing, but it's also notorious for overfitting the data and showing spurious relationships if you misuse it like OP dies here. When you test many different offsets, you increase the probability of finding a high correlation *somewhere*, purely out of random chance. This is kind of like flipping a coin and getting heads 10 times in a row; it's impressive if you only flipped the coin 10 times, but much less exciting if you flipped it 10 million times. You were bound to get a 10-head steak at some point. An overfit predictor is one that performs very well on the historical data used to find it, but poorly on new, unseen data. If you select the single best lag based purely on the highest R-value from your historical test (precisely what OP did here), you risk overfitting to random noise that exists in the sample, but isn't truly predictive. And that's almost surely been done here and the validation should have been on showing that the model isn't overfit. To validate a model like that you wouldn't back-test (what OP does). Some things you could do are split the data into in and out of sample (e.g. make the model based on only the first X days in the series, and then judge it based on its ability to predict the data after day X). You should/could take steps to remove seasonality or trends within the time series first (which we already damn well know the stock market is seasonal, so him using untransformed values is most definitely increasing his calculated correlation). It would also be good to do bootstrapping to check statistical significance, instead of just p value. But it is very entertaining. OP probably also has a data background, to be knowing what to do to specifically torture the data this way.

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Yeah, this was one of those questions that doesn’t need an answer, unless I’m blatantly wrong then someone correct me. I forget the word for that kind of question lol

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What kind of collateral are you putting up on these trades?

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This is the kind of stuff that makes wsb worth every penny I pay for it.

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Pin this one. I will show the woman I am seeing the kind of people I am in the company of. Majestic

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You know what? Im starting to get this itch that says next week will be a bloodbath. Everything drops 10%. This santa clause thing has to be some kind of bull trap

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I am getting kind of tired of it too but switching feels daunting!!

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If you are european and all in on spy you are basically at +0% ytd due to the dollar drop. If you went into ai in october you would still be deeply red right now. If you play options the april crash could have either wiped you out or made you rich. Bitcoin of all things is down in an epic tech bullrun and dollar devaluation year. Very easy to not make money unless you are the right kind of lucky regard who randomly went all in on silver. Or fucking latin american or european banking stocks.

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Feels like the kind of industry where only a tiny handful of companies crystalize out and go 1000x while most other companies just die fast.

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Sorry for the delay, I'm kind of along the same lines as our friend. I'm regulated so I can't give advice ;). If you're younger <~45, I like the risk. If you don't stomach risk, that's okay! It can be more kosher for you to roll off into an index fund or other ETF. Even further reduced risks options. But, the macro is in a pretty good spot according to rate cut perspective. On the contrary, always remember nobody lost money by taking profits (except taxes lol). DM me if you want.I can provide a more detailed perspective if you have other questions.

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