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CME Group Inc

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That's why we look at cme monitor and t bill not this dumb one time rate decision 
Why do poele even care if it's a 25 cut? It depends on their dot plot (fed) and the cme rate monitor (bond investor expectations more obvious) and actual Treasury yield movements (bond market but not instant or obvious)
Why do poele even care if it's a 25 cut? It depends on their dot plot (fed) and the cme rate monitor (bond investor expectations more obvious) and actual Treasury yield movements (bond market but not instant or obvious)
The amount of people who are oblivious to the fact that cme fed futures exist is hilarious, everyone asking "who thinks we get a cut?" Like, uhhh...most educated investors are betting on it...? https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Tell me you don't know about cme futures without telling me
[https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
Google CME Fed calc. It shows 3 cuts this year and 3 next year atm
>The largest ever Fed Funds futures block trade was executed this morning (84,000 contracts, equivalent to $3.5m per basis point), underscoring the significant risk transfer enabled by CME Group's deeply liquid markets. Okay, what if, 0.5 rate cut. Some rando making a 500k bet on polymarket and this CME tweet has me doin' insider trade side-eyes.
Tomorrow we summon Satan himself. S&P to 6,666.66. We short it 20% while chanting in Latin, then reverse and YOLO calls so hard we melt the CME servers and moonshot to 7,777.77 by Christmas. I want Powell crying, CNBC speaking in tongues, and Jim Cramer riding a goat on live TV. Is that really too much to ask?
Use this website: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Usually, if the chance of rate cut/hike is more than 60% near rate decision day, then Fed will do what the market wants. Now its over 90% for 25bp rate cut, so we'll get that. It's because Fed doesn't want to surprise the market by doing the opposite of what the market wants. The big question is how many time rate cut do we get this year. I believe the market priced-in 3 rate cuts this year, so if we get less , then the market may do a pullback.
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