The moment the CME synthesized BTC into their options and futures Is the day the market died

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> CME Group U.S. Equity futures have 7% price limits overnight and remain open for trading at that limit. If markets reach 7% up or down during the overnight session, they remain open but can only trade up to those price limits. Further, Dynamic Circuit Breakers will be in effect with a width of 3.5%. If a contract market moves beyond +/- 3.5% within an hour during the overnight session, trading will be paused for two minutes. [Sauce.](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/understanding-price-limits-and-circuit-breakers.html) Or they just let the servers overheat again **LMAO** 🤌

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Cme doesn’t even work in the best of times do we have any guarantee these circuit breakers will actually work

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89.6% [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

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Fed never fails to cut against the CME fed tool odds, they don't have the balls

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https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

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Polymarket has it at 95% and CME FedWatch has it at 89.2% for a 25 BPS cut

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July 31 2024 The most recent (and last) time prediction markets priced in a very high probability (>70%) of a Federal Reserve rate cut—but the Fed ultimately held rates steady—was ahead of the July 31, 2024, FOMC meeting. At that point, the CME FedWatch Tool (based on 30-Day Fed Funds futures) showed approximately 95% odds of a 25-basis-point cut, driven by cooling inflation data and expectations of easing monetary policy. However, the Fed paused, keeping the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%, citing the need for more evidence of sustained progress toward the 2% inflation target. This misalignment led to a sharp market reaction: the S&P 500 dropped about 2% that day, and Treasury yields rose as traders adjusted to the hawkish surprise. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized in the post-meeting press conference that the decision was data-dependent, with recent inflation readings (like a sticky June CPI) warranting caution despite the market's dovish bets. This is what I think will happen next week, in my opinion.

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