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CME Group Inc

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https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Kind of looks like they are not pricing it in at all If we get another hot cpi report I think it’ll go up to 5% chance. We haven’t been inverted this long on the yield curve since the 1980s I think.
Volatility. More volatility typically means more selling, so it acts a hedge to the major indices. It's more complex than that, but there's the WSB jist. Look up the CME VIX if you want to learn more technicals Also i think UVIX is levyd like 2x so it's intesifies the swings in VIX. UVIX is an ETF that invests in short term futures of the VIX so it's worth noting that it follows the price of the VIX futures market
>Jpow has once again been very clear with his intentions that rate cuts are happening this year. no, what he has said many times it will rely on the data. He has never said "for sure we're gonna cut rates this year, 100% no question". The data is saying no cuts. Multiple fed members are now saying no cuts to 1 cut if necessary. What JPOW has said multiple times is "we need more data" and "rates will stay the same until we are 100% sure there's not going to be an issue". The market has been front running rate cuts for 5+ months, and are now pricing them out. The premise of two cuts this year has dropped significantly over the last week. It can be easily seen in CME FED futures. Three months ago we were at a 80% chance by March. Last week the market was 80% on a rate cut by June. Today they're at a 54% chance by July. Anyone expecting the FED to cut rates without a reason (more than "cause they said maybe") is on some serious Hopium.
>the market today shrugged off hot inflation CME futures markets, pushed out any projected rate cut from June to August. That means rates will remain elevated for longer. It will take a bit for the market to digest how corps with high debt will have to refi cheap older debt at current high rates. Give it a week to really see how big a deal it is.
>CF Benchmarks Launches Bitcoin Volatility Index The Bitcoin Volatility Index will become the baseline reference rate for forward-looking volatility for bitcoin. Composed of the CF Bitcoin Volatility Real Time Index (BVX) and the CF Bitcoin Volatility Index Settlement Rate (BVXS), the indices aggregate implied volatility from bitcoin options contracts listed on the CME into a single value to gauge market volatility and uncertainty. The BVX prints approximately every second to provide bitcoin volatility real-time with the BVXS calculating a daily settlement rate based on a 30-minute window of BVX observations between 1530-1600 London time.
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