If you’re long ORCL, the real bet is on OCI growth, the MSFT tie-up, and whether they can line up GPUs and power; averaging down without those hitting is how you get bagheld. What I’d watch this print: OCI growth pace (still >50–60% y/y or slowing), RPO/backlog, Oracle Database@Azure customer logos and new regions, Cerner margin recovery, and any specifics on capex, data center power deals, and Nvidia H200/B200 delivery timing. OCI’s edge is often price/perf on GPUs and cheap egress, but it only matters if they can turn that into capacity and logos. If you want exposure with less pain: sell cash‑secured puts at levels you’d be happy owning, or wait for the call and write covered calls on any spike; set a hard line where the thesis breaks (e.g., OCI decel + weak backlog). On the ecosystem point: we’ve shipped data apps with Snowflake for warehousing and Databricks for ML, and used DreamFactory to quickly stand up REST APIs over Oracle/SQL Server so teams could ship without building gateways. Bottom line: ORCL works if OCI + Azure expands and GPU/power ramps show up; otherwise it’s dead money.

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