book value doesn't matter in real estate, esp when rates are rising

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that's a pretty big bounce off the 100MA for SPX. i wouldn't want to be short right now, esp if we close above the 20MA

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Bloomberg’s today guest Neil Dutta says financial conditions are too loose and Fed may need to do 3 raises to reign in inflation - esp stock market - is he right

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In case this post gets deleted (most posts here do get deleted) here it is in the comment section to continue the discussion: Is Sable Corp (SOC) a good play? u/visalan Hi guys this is my first post here. Please forgive me for my formatting. Sable corp is an oil producer in the Santa Ynez unit in California. They have 2 platforms online currently producing 40k BPD. They had been fighting about the Santa ynez pipeline system for a long time but the Defense Production Act allowed them to restart oil transportation through the pipe line. Recently their stock has been beaten down a lot. Just a few months back, this stock was trading at 13$ now it’s trading at 4. This was mainly due to them refinancing their loan where they had to: \- Raise 115M by issuing shares at $3.08 per share \- 345M of 6.5% notes convertible due 2031 \- 675M at 15% interest rate And secondly, they posted a -eps Q2 which caused it to fall further. I feel like the stock is beaten down enough and currently, the bullish reasons outweigh the bearish sentiment. bullish: The 3rd platform is coming online: previously, they were producing 40K BPD and now they can do closer to 60K BPD. Moreover, the oil produced in the first 2 platforms were sour and the refineries were unwilling to take them. However the crude from the 3rd platform is sweeter and by mixing the 2, refineries are more willing to take their crude. Sable corp says that California refineries are willing to take more Californian OCS crude which is what Sable corp produces. Secondly, since they took the loan they had to hedge their oil. For the 2H of 2026, they have the crude hedged from $65 floor to $89.39 ceiling for 28k BPD hedged however they are producing 40K now and soon to be producing 60K taking. ( up until now o thought they could sell their oil at 100+ a barrel but I see that the California Crude Oil First Purchase Price is at 77$.) With the increase in production, I think they will be able to pay down their debts. My main thesis is that SOC is heavily shorted at like 30% and if they can post a profitable Q3, the price of the stock could seriously rerate and there might be a potential short squeeze. I can’t find much people talking about this online and I would love to hear your thoughts esp if I’m overlooking something and I’m going to lose my money

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