DCF analysis - Calculating price point set for the new drug with annual gross price of $450k gets me to roughly $45/share although potential commercial opportunity is realized over 4-8 quarters. That’s dependent on a broad and clean label, side effects noted as part of trial findings but not included in black box warning. If there is black box warning, assumes price point stays the same but decreasing US/EU/Japan penetration by 10-20%, DCF is closer to $21/share (still 40% upside). Post the drug approval, I’d likely trim a good bit as commercial opportunity may take some time to ramp up.

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The problem is, how do you judge what's the fair market value of Tesla so you know it's selling at a discount? Let's say you're using the DCF model - what growth numbers are you using for your assumptions for fair market value? Because, if you do this, you'll come to a realization that Tesla at current stock prices has over 25% year on year growth priced in for the next decade, significantly more than the growth it saw last year or the one before. Buying Tesla on fundamentals would mean you expect that either Tesla will outperform this. You are expecting that Elon will successfully hype something which will launch Tesla's valuation to the moon again. That's possible, but that's not "buying at a discount", that's betting, which is cool, but it's best to be clear with yourself what's the play.

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If all you're doing is weigh a stock movement against the market, how are you gonna buy stock at discount? You realize to make money, you have to make a bet against the consensus at some point right? Otherwise, you're just buying what's already priced in, and one step behind actually, because the market looks at news you might not even know about. The only way to buy stock at discount is buying a stock that's been brought down by more pessimism than actually realized, and to do that it's gonna take some balls to buy when people tell you to sell. If you wait until all the bad news are gone, the stock is likely 30-50% off its bottom. And you don't even need to buy at the bottom. Even if you don't, as time goes by, the stock nominal price goes up due to inflation, higher earnings/sales, etc. That's by default when you do DCF valuation. The US recession call moved out of the consensus around summer 2023. By then SP500 was 30% off its bottom.

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As the title suggests, I'm trying to find the intrinsic value of NVDA and came up with a calculator based on DCF. But I'm having problems trying to figure out what to input for the FCF Growth Rate and Perpetual Growth Rate in order to calculate the Terminal Value (TV). Can any expert provide some guidance on what % you would input for the FCF growth rate and why? Let's base NVDA's current data as a benchmark, forecasting the 10 year FCF. All comments welcome.

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There is this thing called forward PE and DCF….nevermind. Grade A bagholding regard spotted. Good luck.

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There are things like PE and DCF that sane investors used to look at. Look em up. You might get your answer versus asking bonafide regards and autists here.

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