until thursday cpi. inflation is creeping up which will spook wallstreet that we wont get a 25 bps cut in 2026…which will force taco man to announce his pick early, maybe by christmas/ny
OP, u were supposed to buy puts on the cpi report which coincidentally on the same day bank of japan doing 25bps. should not play puts on tomorrow’s unemployment report. 🤷♂️
The sell side has this pinned at a 0.8 beta, and also the dcf terminal growth is pegged at 0%, not cpi or Gdp. At the end of the day it's an 8% fcf yield, with no inflation passthrough, in a 4% world, not bad but it's no Wendys... WEN is pumping out 10.5% fcf yield with inflation pass through, and the thesis is simple: dumpster BJs never go out of style.
Job report tomorrow and then some Feds speak on Wednesday and CPI Thursday. Then the big report - BOJ rate hike on Friday.
If BOJ says no more rate hike or don't know if they'll do more rate hike on the next meeting, then I think the market will take it as a dovish meeting and we (hopefully) pump from that.
Tomorrow: non farm payrolls and retail sales data from Oct/Nov
Wednesday: CPI from November
Seems like today was more profit taking, derisking before these data releases.