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CPI

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Recent Comments

Yup, I'm expecting like 10% CPI in the next few months, they will jack those rates and market realign
about 7 hours ago
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Hes going to say the fed will continue using all of its tools to promote full employment. Inflation will continue to be above the target 2%, but thats actually fine because 2% target is an average, and it was well under 2% for several years in the past. In addition, the reason you're seeing huge "increases" in CPI is because they are Year over Year percentages. If you compare this year to the data from the absolute top of the pandemic global lockdown, of course the number is going to be skewed higher, because stores are actually open now. The actual real price increase is relatively modest if you look past a timeline of exactly 1 year. The fed will continue to purchase 120BN in bonds for the rest of 2021 and they will start talking about tapering those purchases once they see "significant progress" on employment numbers. They will not specify what "significant progress" is. Feel free to @ me tomorrow when this is exactly what the FOMC report says.
about 7 hours ago
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I'll try a simple explanation based on my understanding. The banks have a lot of reserves (cash) that they lose money on when it just sits around. They'd rather have it in treasuries that they can use as collateral. Meanwhile there's lots of things going on like hedging around CPI, tomorrow's Fed meeting, and next week's Russell rebalance. So banks need the short term treasury bills to use as collateral for all this business. Except the Fed already bought tons of it from QE. So the Fed set up a reverse repo facility where banks can park their cash in exchange for collateral to keep the liquidity moving. The amount being parked in the repo facility keeps increasing. This is fueling speculation that the Fed will have to do something. Perhaps by changing the rate administered at the repo facility.
about 7 hours ago
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I thought that CPI would tank the market and i couldn’t have been more wrong. I have a feeling all this hype about j POW is smoke. Interest rates aint moving, market gonna keep going up
about 8 hours ago
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CPI was exaggerated by the FED as an April fools joke. Powell will explain that you can’t do an April fools prank on April 1st because then it’s too obvious. You have to do it 2 months later and keep the joke going for a month. Everyone laughs and SPY smashes through ATH
about 8 hours ago
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JPOW speaks tomorrow and has a press conference. If he says anything unfavorable or slips up during the Q and A it’ll probably be a rough week or two for the market. Even if you ignore that, the market has been seeing rapid growth. Reaching constant all time highs with little pull back. And even when there is pullback the market uses it to bounce back higher. Many people are seeing the CPI and things like sales and are worried about the economy. JPOW is in a rough spot but many people even without him speaking are worried.
about 10 hours ago
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$GE was gearing to breakout of the pattern upwards after testing the highs. It looked like it was going to land around $15. So I made the bet. Originally with 1000c news kept pumping, 100 aircraft deal, then $7B debt payed off, then I got wind of an announcement on June 14th from aviation. The price target was supported by analysts so I sent it and doubled down on my loss. Little did I know that yahoo pumped an article on why hedge funds stopped buying $GE just some bullshit FUD so sell offs continued. On Monday $GE announced a joint venture with Safran with a new engine model that would reduce carbon output and China announced talks to recert the 737 MAX. The CPI numbers didn’t look terrible but it was a miss so it continued to drop. After a week of great news the stock price dropped 7% and broke the retry to breakout. So I lost the bet. PPI numbers came out a miss but it recovered today and got me enough interest to sell today at a 97% loss.
about 11 hours ago
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My guess is he’ll talk about tapering. Unless next few months CPI is 2% which will give an average of “around 2%” for a 12 month period. If you don’t think that’s happening then it’s a good time to hedge. IMO.
about 12 hours ago
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Not OP, but I am a bit confused here. You referenced the massive money printing, but think inflation is leveling off? Don't expect it to be linear increases. There will be pullbacks, perhaps even on a monthly basis. But I think prices have to adjust to match what was printed and I don't think we're close to there yet. Some markets like lumber may have peaked, but other markets haven't been affected yet. Price increases are still working through the pipeline and wages will follow causing another round of price increases. Also, watch some of the other markets. Logistics is insane, especially cargo ships. Computer chips are in shortage for the next year, maybe more. Vehicles are in shortage. I'd also caution against putting too much stock in the CPI. It's probably a decent indicator, but it has a lot of flaws.
about 12 hours ago
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The Producer Price Index just like there's the CPI
about 13 hours ago
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