CAPE Ratio, Buffett Indicator, and Mean Reversion are 2 standard deviations over-valued compared to historical trend. That is objectively euphoric, regardless of the commenting you see online. Many stock prices are objectively at euphoric prices. Sure, I'll see posts and discussions about "bubble or not". But then I look at the daily thread and other places and it's mostly just throw-away comments of "we go up" idiots who can't even throw more than one sentence together. I mean, you could be right that the bubble will get crazier from here. But then you'd need to argue that CAPE Ratio, Buffett Indicator, and Mean Reversion will get much crazier than they have historically ever been before the market snaps. Market bubbles generally burst months (or even years) in advance before the earnings data and economic data/cycle plateaus or goes south. Earnings growth and economic data often looks good and "in the clear" at the top of a market bubble. Many of the hot stocks are already baking in like 5-10 years of uninterrupted growth in advance right now. And there's many flashing warning signs if you're paying attention: Dog-shit money losing stocks with near-zero revenues have been getting pumped like crazy this year just for saying the words "AI, blockchain, hyper-scaler, data center, quantum computing, space rockets" or whatever other bullshit. PLTR at $415B market cap at over 100x price-to-sales ratio is the most expensive mega-cap in history. TSLA at $1.35T and 280 P/E has no growth and has been propped up on Elon's bullshit grifting. The market cap of Gold has doubled in just 2 years from $14T to [$28T](https://companiesmarketcap.com/gold/marketcap/), far out-pacing inflation. Crypto (with it's multi-trillion dollar "market cap") has been the biggest scam bubble for years now that has been propped up by stable-coin printing, Microstrategy buying, and other financial chicanery non-sense. Right now though, with the broken technicals on the crypto charts and MSTR, as well as the apparent "pause" in stable-coin printing... it is looking like the collapse of the crypto house of cards may now \*potentially\* be happening. And if crypto collapses, I think it will spill over some into weakness in the rest of the market. Also, almost all of the AI companies (such as OpenAI) are money-losing pits right now. The more people use ChatGPT or Sora, the more money OpenAI loses. EDIT: And another thing: Anecdotally, the common attitude I'm seeing among skeptics is "Yeah, I think it's probably a bubble... but I'm still staying in anyways." That doesn't bode well in my eyes.  *“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.“ -not Mark Twain*

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No, no, no, no. You're repeating common myths here. When CAPE ratio, Buffett Indicator, and Mean Reversion are all this extreme, it has historically been the END of a bull-run, not the middle. For every person like me that is skeptical, there are many more that have your attitude that the bull run has much further to go. The crap that gets parroted here like "a crash doesn't happen until every single last skeptic has thrown in the towel and bought in" is bullshit. There will ALWAYS be a decent chunk of skeptics, even at the tippy-top. "Usually it happens when we least expect it". Well, there's plenty of people with their heads in the sand that aren't expecting it anytime soon. And I think there is now a "silent majority" of investors that aren't even really paying attention to what is being said on financial media, WSB, or other stock forums. And I also think that most of the people trading/gambling right now on the market aren't commenting - they're just quietly smashing the BUY button on the most popular shit for as long as it works until it stops working (and they aren't doing any fundamental analysis at all). All that said, my broken crystal ball agrees a small bit with you in the sense that I think the market may have another "fake-out crash" before the real crash happens just to fake out and trap the crowd of people saying "bubble" like me.

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Your comments in this thread are a bubble indicator to me: * Large six-figure positions in UPRO and TQQQ when the S&P 500 valuation measures by CAPE ratio, Buffett Indicator, and Mean Reversion metrics are all at 1929/2000/2021 levels [(2 standard deviations above historical trend](http://currentmarketvaluation.com), which were all bubbles in the past that preceded crashes). Valuation-wise, there is almost no denying that the market is in a bubble. * "Not even Trump attempting to nuke the entire economy could bring it down 25%." A 25% market drawdown wouldn't even bring the market valuation down to the historical average line. It could go down much further than that. * A 50% market drawdown will be a killer for anyone who just went all-in lump sum any time semi-recently. A 50% market drawdown is definitely plausible when the market is this over-valued. And with so many more degenerates crowding into call options, leveraged ETFS, meme bubble stocks (crypto, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR), and going in big on every single dip/rip more than ever, that 25-50% market drawdown will be more like a 90%+ drawdown for most degenerates in reality. * You say that so many people are waiting for a crash as a buying opportunity that it's going to immediately be over-purchased and money will get pumped. But then in a follow-up comment you offer up evidence that too many people have already piled in already (Retail going from 10% of total equities trading volume in 2010 to approximately 25% by 2021, with recent estimates at 30% and 37% of daily trading volume). * Faulty logic: "We'll continue toward the moon because we have no where else to go." Here's where else we could possibly go: DOWN. * Famous last words: "And I fully believe we can't even crash anymore."

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What’s the bull case where the second highest Cape PE in the past 120 years deserves to become the first highest Cape PE in 120 years?

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I'm glad you realized it soon enough. Meta literally borrowed \~57.3B of high interest debt this year. More than their generated free cash flow in a record breaking year. Said interest on the debt is like \~6%+, meaning they pay almost $3.5B in interest just for data center debts. And there is no chance of them clearing this off their books for like the next 5 years. Tesla - A company with $40B in cash-equivalents and $4B in free cash flow wants to build more data centers? (beside the one in Texas) No cash for interest payments means equity fund raising/dilution is on the horizon. Sam Altman was right when he went begging Trump for govt-backed loans to build these data centers. If it doesn't happen, it's going to be very very bad. I'll wait for the panic to set in on these debt loads before going in. Pretty certain Trump will cave and come in wearing Superman's cape to save AI during the mid-terms.

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The point is that it was never this extremely over-valued during all those other years (CAPE ratio, Buffet Indicator, and Mean Reversions all 2 standard deviations strongly over-valued). But whenever it WAS this extremely over-valued (1929, 2000, 2021, now) a crash or bear market always soon followed.

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But... the CAPE ratio, Buffett Indicator, and Mean Reversion for S&P 500 are all over 2 standard deviations over-valued above historical trend ([Source 1](https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/), [Source 2](https://www.multpl.com/)) And historically, every time that has been the case (1929, 2000, 2021), there has been a crash or bear market. History says we go down So... what to do?

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