RDDT has done nothing but piss me off every day for the last 2 years. Its seen absolutely nothing but growth yet every couple months when it hits ATH some bitch ass finance firm says some bs like "hurr durr ads bad" or something and it tanks like 100 bucks. Smashes earnings a couple days later. This shit has happened like 4 times already.

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Ads always remain

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Super Bowl cancelled. Will be replaced with Iran bombing live streams. Ads will remain.

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Not general consumers. For "start ups" or enterprise, many prefer Claude, but Chat GPT still has like 20x more consumer users And over the long term every LLM is going to need to serve ads in its "free" tier. Chat GPT is just doing it first. Claude will pretend they have the moral high ground and then quietly release an ad version before you know it

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They cannot even control the output, how do you convince advertisers that their ads are placed correctly?

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Microsoft has much more going wrong. Windows 11 is pretty shit with them even nodding to how much shit they’ve broken and instead of fixing it, they are jamming their shitty AI into office which very few people want. People just want search to work and not show ads. MAUI is a flop. Blazor is still ass. Most of their products have just gotten significantly worst.

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Let's not talk about Amazon as a whole. We have to talk about Amazon Retail+Ads (ARA) and Amazon Web Services (AWS). They are two completely separate businesses bundled into one. ARA is actually a bad business (comparatively) that I wouldn't invest in. Growing 10% on $127B US and 17% on 50.7B intl, with margins around 9% and 2% respectively. Retail is hard to scale and profit. Your autonomous warehouse thesis hits here, they might be able to get a few points of margin here but it won't be game changing. AWS is what everyone's watching, the growth and backlog are slowing relative to GOOG/MSFT. The world is changing very actively and the newest tech companies and legacy companies are all choosing their AI cloud providers now, it's a new inning and every legacy and new tech company's cloud and AI spend is up for grabs. AWS's lackluster chips program and their lack of AI bundling like GOOG makes them the dumb choice for any enterprise or AI startup. It really comes down to this: Any startup or executive will choose 1) GOOG or 2) MSFT for their AI/Cloud strategy going forward. If you choose AWS/Oracle/IBM you will be laughed out of the room and fired (or your company will slowly sink). This is the current state of play. AWS might catch up later as startups and enterprises start going multicloud, but the current GOOG offering is just too attractive.

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Oh it's happening. My wsb page has plasma donation ads on it. Calls on whoever the brilliant marketer who set aside cash to time that campaign. Puts on everything else.

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The people who pay are shifting to Gemini and Claude. Start ups prefer open weight models. Open AI is getting squeezed. That’s why they’re going ads.

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A big portion of their revenue growth is due to changes in their advertising costs and structure. It's a short term acceleration. Like what YouTube saw when they doubled the amount of ads. Won't be surprising to see it die down to 20% growth (still good)

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