Zooming and Pedaling Through Corona with Becky and Karen (ZM, PTON) 
Apr 25, 2020


MSGE, DPZ, CZR, PINS, GILD, ATVI, NOK, VIRT, and APHA


MSGE, DPZ, CZR, PINS, GILD, ATVI, NOK, VIRT, and APHA (all of which went either up or down after we spoke positively or negatively about the stocks or options) 

 SUBSCRIBE (less than one crappy Starbuck Coffee/wk)

Zooming Over Corona (ZM)

6afbf85c-6779-4e41-a26d-2ebfaa77d6d8

Zoom is over-hyped. Zoom has massive security holes with an engineering team in China. But Zoom is also now a household name. The free marketing from that is worth $billions. On the other side, you have Microsoft/Google competition and possible issues due to Feds inquiring about their security flaws and links to PRC government. 

BananaSuitGoat Why Tesla? Short the fuck outta ZOOM. That's the most overhyped bullshit of the decade. radiodank How do you figure that a >20x increase in DAUs doesn’t drive like 150% Billings growth this year? At that sort of growth rate the stock looks cheap. Even if you assume massive churn: like 75% of the incremental paid licenses, they will still grow 45% 2022 before getting back to ~50% growth the year after, and stock still looks cheap vs other SaaS high growth on these numbers (2021 & 2022). Or did you just not do any work here and are just spouting unfounded opinions. degener8_otm you think $ZM has enough of a revenue increase this quarter to warrant a P/E over 1,500? Captain_Obstinate It's an interesting time to short them when they are experiencing a massive spike in user growth and media coverage. If you have expectation that there will be a massive wave of entities that ban it's use for their security issues however... radiodank The stock isn’t trading on PE my dude—it never was. Idk why you would think it does... Noob_Noodles Cant believe another person has to spell this out again: -ZM is incredibly overvalued (lol $37billion last i checked) mostly free users paid institutions keep leaving due to security reasons Verizon(?) just bought and is developing a new competitor Microsoft Teams is already paid for by most corporations etc etc etc SNAP was -31% over the last 3 months before gapping up today. ZM up over 100% and stuck at that resistance for the 3rd time already. Who do you think would be easier to gap up during earnings? The two are hardly comparable (not to mention that SNAP STILL missed their earnings projection despite more user time and growth) maybeguineapig SNAP missed earnings and still gapped up. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Never forget this. Noob_Noodles fuck me you're right Conmew $ZM is the most overvalued piece of trash software company I've ever seen. No idea how it is at all time highs. swd120 Because everybody and their mother is using it... It doesn't really matter if some companies don't think it's secure enough. All or friends and family are using it for virtual happy hours, and virtual get togethers - it's getting a ton of use just by general consumers, dance classes, yoga studios, shit one of my co-workers kids is doing gymnastics over fucking zoom. PayMe4TradeIdeas So ? That's one side of the equation. The other side is 35 billion valuation. Are you saying Zm worth 1/15 of FB? Or 1/5 of Disney? Or almost as much as amd and mu? Like half of avgo? Gtfo DividendWarlock Anyone feels like ZM is like the coronavirus in early February when we could all see it coming and everyone insisted that it was 'priced in' but the market still crashed? ejk0005 Zoom is the meme stock of the coronavirus. I don't touch meme stocks. What should it be worth? Truth be told, who knows - I think that's why these things stay up for as long as they do. MEME stocks are: TSLA, SPCE, ZM, DIS (not really meme, but cult following). These ones are known for burning short sellers. I'd do puts on GILD before ZM. But I completely agree - it'll go down. It may just take 3 months.

Pedaling Past Corona (PTON)

63d9746f-4830-4217-8539-4d5ef9cef851

The business model of institutional VC investors is to sell their investments after they go public and then re-invest in new, riskier ventures. Obviously they like to time their sales right, but I wouldn't read too much into this:

TheTigersAreNotReal I have the same issue with PTON, the cult following it has is wild. But luckily it seems that investors are starting to pivot away from it. Comcast dumped half their shares this morning, and another early investor did the same beginning of April. My puts are tentatively printing but I’m still concerned about PTONs retard strength. · jtex91386 I would highly suggest searching for the PTON did posted a week or so ago. Nothing new under the sun. This thing is going the way of Nordictrack scoackle Nordictrak didn't charge u to use the thing monthly either. Infomercials wee on nearly daily. Free classes lol I_have_a_dog If they could just find a way to make oil into a tech stock, negative value per share wouldn’t be seen as a problem. Maybe strap an iPad to barrels of oil, worked for PTON.  

When a company doesn't have to pay to market themselves because social media is doing it for them, that's bullish:

harry_kalas DD? PTON cancelled all their online ad expenses on Friday. Bikes selling themselves. Maybe already priced in though, none of that is a surprise steatorrhoea It’s their subscriptions and other shit that will take them over the hump. You don’t need their bike to do their workouts shitsterMcgee Sales are gonna plummet once Karen is allowed back in the free world twflight Surprised it took them this long to do that. Those bikes/subscriptions were probably selling themselves at least a month ago. OutOfBananaException Agreed. It's bizarre to see economy closed as bullish for PTON, but also now economy open is bullish. DJEnright The economy being open and people being willing to sit in a tightly-packed spin class full of people sweating and breathing heavy are two different things. Last quarter should be huge. This quarter should be huge too. Every bike they sell comes with a $480 a year subscription fee attached to it. I've been looking at the numbers and it looks like they may have a path to profitability this year rather than in 2023, which is what they were saying pre-COVID. That's why I'm bullish, but I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens when they report earnings.