How to Trade the End of COVID
Oct 10, 2020


a potential catalyst for travel stonks


How to Trade the End of COVID 

What if COVID is over? Obviously it’s not disappearing, but what if the American people start to move away from the fear psychology that has gripped them since March? 

Chris Christie has COVID. Chris Christie is not a healthy man. Chris Christie just walked out of the hospital. Apparently he beat COVID. 

We don’t mean to make light of Chris Christie’s weight and risk- as the national media, to their discredit, has been doing. We are just pointing out a broadly accepted fact. And we held off posting this out of respect for someone who may have been severely sick. 

Chris Christie has asthma and is severely obese. With such a pre-existing condition, he is in a very high risk group. It’s one thing for the energetic young 71 year old Donald Trump to skate through COVID; but if Chris Christie makes it through OK, it will go a long way to reassure a frightened populace. What if Christie’s success against COVID signals to young and/or healthy people that they should be cautious but not afraid of COVID? 

That is not to undermine the danger of COVID. For some groups, COVID will remain a major risk; but for an increasingly large segment of the population, COVID is just another manageable risk in a world of manageable risks.

The Trade

Travel Stonks Screenshot 2020-10-10 132411

90 Day and 7 Day Travel Stonks Buzz

In June we saw a surge in buzz about travel stonks on r/wallstreetbets when it appeared like we’d be getting back to normal. That proved to be a false start and the anticipated return to normal was stunted in many places. People are still getting COVID now, but if severe cases as measured by hospitalizations and mortality don’t follow, the market may start looking past this flu season and accumulating beaten up travel stonks. 

We’d continue to watch the buzz around this theme, as well as the options positioning in big travel names like $AAL, $JBLU, $BKNG, $JETS, $CCL, etc.