1 month ago u/W_Malinowski you felt cuts were definitely not coming and we wouldn't go up further. Have you changed your mind? >fuck off with the scam Vs . >cuts are not coming lol

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>housing market down Not tariffs related, but due to mismatch of sellers vs buyers (e.g. oversupply of sellers, few buyers) >Gas coming down OPEC maintaining high production to muscle out market share from domestic producers >Except on the West Coast where policies fucked up the refinery business and carbon taxes raised prices False, domestic producers operate at lower margins than OPEC so they cut those refineries - see comment above (also lol at carbon taxes) You really don't know shit about anything, do you?

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I bet a lot of bears capitulated these last few days. Not me though. Me vs all of 🫵

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Pretty high premiums vs leaps, also not concerned about post fed announcement movement?

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Yahoo finance futures vs trading view futures rn🤨

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I'm well on this path. I'm up almost 400% with options vs 50% in stocks.

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I think you’re mixing up what should happen vs what will happen. There’s no way the odds of them cutting rates are 45%. Maybe if we lived in rational times but not now.

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Vs RKLB YTD lol. Which one is the better bet?! 😂 https://preview.redd.it/8xlmholvtepf1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9235d7ccff11002f59c6c0874f4aaf60310df5c9

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The biggest current driver to me is the recent pay package. It closely resembles the terms from the [2018 package](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-announces-new-long-term-performance-award-elon-musk), that led to an increase in market cap from $50B to $650 B in only 2 years (vs the goal of 10) and fully vested by Dec 2022. It was valued at $2.8B in 2018, but $56B at vesting. Elon lost the entire $56B due to a Delaware judge’s decision, even after multiple shareholder votes to let him keep it. That’s why the board voted to give him $29B last month. That 2018 package was itself modeled after a 2012 package that saw a 17x increase in market cap within 5 years. He got 9 of 10 tranches within 5 years of that 10 year goal. The current proposal bases compensation around increasing market cap from $1.1T to $8.5T within 10 years. Like the 2 previous packages, TSLA would have to sustain both 60 day and 180 day averages for the grants to vest, and they’re in a series of successive tranches that start at $2T, then each 0.5 T to $6.5T, and a final two tranches to $8.5T. If you average his previous beats, this implies he thinks he can hit $8.5T within ~5 years. That’s 44% CAGR based on current 1.34T market cap. That’s the rate based on the beating schedule, but the market cap would be achieved some time before that. Within the 10 year goal is 20% CAGR. Within 3.5 years (closer to the market cap increase average he achieved for the first 2 packages) it’s 69% (lol). As to your other points. If there’s room for Uber and Lyft in the US alone, plus BoltCar, DiDi etc throughout the world, then there’s room for Tesla and Waymo. Plus Waymo hardware costs $200k, Tesla <$40k, so Tesla has the potential to replace more uses than Waymo. With the politicization of news and filter bubbles, it’s hard to know what the current sales are. I’m in the most liberal area of Canada, and I still see plenty of new Teslas, including many Cybertrucks. But he has guides for several potential worse quarters due to the loss of the tax credits.

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Don’t be regarded. The rate cut is not what’s moving markets. Now it’s 25 vs 50 points that will move markets. If we only get 25 markets will sell-the-news because it’s already priced in 25. If we get a 50, that will be rocket fuel. If you make a bet on NO rate cut, you’re actually regarded and deserve what’s coming to you.

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