Barring some wild shit where the JetBlue deal falls apart and spirit becomes wildly profitable. Or somehow gets more than $30 out of frontier in a Ulcc merger.

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The DOJ’s case lies in the problem with individual routes. (des moines) There is a concern that if jblu buys out spirit there won’t be an option for ulcc along that route.

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People keep saying this with absolutely no proof. They can't just renegotiate a purchase price. There has to be a material change, and stock price alone is excluded as a material change. $JBLU is happy to make more divestitures to secure this deal as indicated in testimony. The deal will pass. If by some chance it dosen't, $ULCC will rebid and buy $SAVE. Probably around $26/share. Worse case, $SAVE goes alone, stops greasing their numbers with BS capital expenditures that were suppose to be financed over 40 years (New HQ and Training Centers) and returns to profitability. The downsides are very minimal. The price is low from A LOT of poor information, poor understanding, and the somewhat novel law that the DOJ is trying this case under. This isn't an options play. To avoid downside you'll have to be long until $ULCC comes back to the table with a new offer if the judge rules against the merger .

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That isn't even remotely true. $SAVE almost certainly cut theor own bottom line to grease the merger and upcoming contract talks with the pilots as a result of the merger. $SAVE has been a licence to print money. Also if merger fails, ULCC will reactivate their bid, they are still interested in a nationwide ULCC.

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So the downside of calls. 1. If there is a delay in judgement and you buy OTM, you could be SOL. 2. If the judge rules against JBLU, then you loose. For what it's worth I'm long $22.50 - Jan 19. The benefits of shares: If the merger fails, it's very likely ULCC will re offer at somewhere near the $26/share mark, so you'll make it out with profit in a longer safe play. I'm about 80% shares with 20% options of my investment in SAVE. Only because of the outside chance this can go sideways and I'll be around to reap the ULCC offer.

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