I was looking for the China comment. There is a growing sentiment that is starting to look at China as the model for infrastructure development, b/c they get things done so fast.
Perfect — here’s a one-page investment memo for PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL) as of November 2025, summarizing the company’s latest financials, strategic momentum, valuation view, and key risks.
📄 Investment Memo: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)
Date: November 2025
Analyst: ChatGPT (GPT-5)
Sector: Fintech / Payments
Ticker: PYPL | Market Cap: ~$75B
Recent Price (Nov 2025): ~$68–70
52-Week Range: ~$50 – $82
🧾 Investment Thesis
PayPal is executing a credible turnaround under CEO Alex Chriss, transitioning from stagnation toward profitable, diversified growth. With improving transaction margins, renewed consumer engagement through Venmo, early traction in advertising and AI-driven commerce integrations, and the reinstatement of a dividend, PayPal is re-emerging as a cash-rich fintech with multiple growth levers.
Valuation remains compelling relative to peers, suggesting upside potential if management sustains EPS momentum and TPV growth.
💰 Recent Performance (Q3 2025 Highlights)
Revenue: $8.42 B (+7% YoY)
Non-GAAP EPS: $1.34 (+12% YoY)
TPV: $458 B (+8% YoY)
Free Cash Flow: $1.7 B
Active Accounts: 438 M (+1% YoY)
Transaction Margin Dollars: +6% YoY
Dividend: Initiated at $0.14 / quarter (first in company history)
Buybacks: $1.5 B repurchased Q3 alone
Outlook: FY25 non-GAAP EPS $5.35–5.39 (raised). Management emphasizes “quality growth” and cost discipline.
🚀 Key Catalysts & Positives
1. Venmo Monetization:
Launch of Venmo Stash cash-back program aims to drive debit card spend and interchange revenue. Venmo card penetration now a key monetization vector.
2. PayPal World / Cross-Border Expansion:
New platform linking to India UPI, Mercado Pago, and Tenpay Global opens high-growth remittance and merchant corridors.
3. PayPal Ads:
Building first-party data ad network leveraging merchant insights — potentially high-margin incremental revenue.
4. AI & Agentic Commerce Partnerships:
Integrations with Google, OpenAI, and Perplexity to enable “smart checkout” and embedded payment flows.
5. Capital Returns:
Dividend + accelerated buybacks signal confidence in steady free-cash-flow generation.
6. Crypto & BNPL Product Expansion:
Enhanced stablecoin and BNPL infrastructure expand addressable markets beyond traditional checkout.
⚙️ Financial Health
Net Cash Position: ~$3 B (cash – debt)
Free Cash Flow Yield: ~9–10%
Operating Margin: ~23% (non-GAAP)
ROE: ~21%
No material near-term debt maturities
📊 Valuation Snapshot (as of Nov 2025)
Metric PYPL Peers (Avg: V, MA, SQ, ADYEN)
Forward P/E ~12× ~21×
EV/EBITDA ~9× ~16×
FCF Yield ~9–10% ~5%
Fair Value Estimate: $85–95 / share (≈25–35% upside)
Assumes sustained mid-single-digit revenue growth, stable margins, and continued capital returns.
⚠️ Key Risks
User Engagement: Transactions per account still below 2022 levels; weak activity could cap TPV growth.
Competitive Pressure: Apple Pay, Block/Square, and traditional card networks compress take-rates.
Regulatory Headwinds: BNPL, crypto, and ad data usage may invite scrutiny.
Execution Risk: Monetizing Venmo Stash and Ads needs careful rollout and user adoption.
Macro Sensitivity: Consumer spending slowdown could hit merchant volumes.
🧩 Bottom Line
PayPal is no longer a pure growth story — it’s a cash-flow compounder in transition, trading at value-stock multiples. Early success with Venmo Stash, PayPal Ads, and cross-border expansion shows a path back to mid-teens EPS growth. If execution holds, re-rating toward peers’ multiples appears justified.
📈 Recommendation: Buy / Accumulate
Time Horizon: 12–24 months
Target Range: $85–95
Would you like me to append a peer-comparison chart (Square, Visa, Mastercard, Adyen) and a DCF-based fair-value model to this memo for deeper valuation detail?
would you say someone coming here just to call everyone else stupid:
A. Thinks they are a genius, or
B. Did shitty and has become vengeful?
Asking for a friend.
But to more directly answer your question: I look for the high volume options zones and set my sell limit just below that point. Averaging about a 40% gain b
😊to me that was the biggest mental hurdle to overcome, still fighting it as ridiculous as it may sound. I hit a 12x once with a modest amount and instead of being happy I was immediately pissed I hadn't invested more, and just set that money on fire pretty much. If I buy 2 stocks today and a goes up 50% but b goes down 20% , I feel like I've lost money by not putting the whole amount in the winning bet. It's silly and stupid and I'm aware of it, but it's still a struggle
China will have sex robots first.
# XPENG's new humanoid robot has breasts. Here's why.
[https://mashable.com/article/xpeng-iron-humanoid-robot-female-breasts-why?test\_uuid=04wb5avZVbBe1OWK6996faM&test\_variant=b](https://mashable.com/article/xpeng-iron-humanoid-robot-female-breasts-why?test_uuid=04wb5avZVbBe1OWK6996faM&test_variant=b)