oooof... i have no freaking idea. supposedly the yen will stabilize, maybe start to strengthen over a long period of time, if takaichi wins with a large majority. her spending plans may be mostly priced in(?)
if her win margin is smaller (and she has to form a coalition with other parties), OR she loses, the other candidates are promising more spending and tax cuts, investors will see that as more inflation ahead and could start dumping Japanese bonds, which would be bearish yen. BoJ has said they'll intervene if that happens, they have the US bonds and equities on hand to transfer to yen and buy those bonds back. my theory (although i have no way of knowing) is they have been pulling out of some of their market positions this week under guidance from the Treasury, but who knows... doing it all at one time would set off a panic. as for USD and yen, it could all fluctuate really quickly, especially bc of the China/Iran/Greenland/Euro tensions in the background
Yea it works. I just don't see it being a big business like it's priced at; especially when you have starlink who's already making money and is available now.
We'll see how it plays out. It's been a great trading stock as I didn't get in the low 20s but getting in and out has been very profitable the last months
valid analysis tbh. i question it because i feel that wealthy consumers in the US actually continue to spend healthily, and data mostly supports that. assets of all kinds are inflated, and that causes greater spending from those that actually hold those assets, and who are often the ones with the most disposable income as well. meanwhile the less wealthy still have baseline expenditure for survival that floors their levels of spending.
my point being this K shaped economy can sustain itself for a while longer, and i think it will, so if something is threatening the economy it won't be from the consumer.
"Bad Bunny is unamerican. Puerto Rico has been a rogue nation for far too long. The United States must take Puerto Rico as the 53rd state for self defense."
\- Mango during the Super Bowl