K

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1) If I change the discount rate to 10% and the on! growth to 28% it gives me an intrinsic value of $66.27 leaving all other assumptions unchanged. I didn't use CAPM or WACC or whatever cuz I'm regarded and wanted to reduce noise in the valuation portion and then tried to factor in idiosyncratic risk as evaluated in my in depth analysis(and adjusted assumptions in valuation as indicated from research), theres a link at the end of post if interested. 2) 60%,40%,20%, are highly aggressive assumptions to base valuation on, yes. But all of those %s are under historic trends, 40 follows last two years and is supported by softs analysis and 20% is under what the industry is projecting for the product category. Ultimately, its up for debate, but I have high conviction that 30% is a safe assumption and thesis holds at 30%. 3) Also up for debate, but research indicates that even for vape users there is 1 in 5 attrition to traditional smokeables. My DD is not that young americans dont use juuls/nonsmokeables, its that the idea that they dont smoke cigs is played out. Young people as non smokers is over stated IMO, even playboi carti was smoking a marlboro light in this music vid (nvm it wont let me link it but search 2024 playboi carti and you'll see it at 1:04 and on, then think about his demographics). With that said IQOS is def the future and will create some degree of headache for Altria as it is slowly introduced to US market in the coming years. 4) I'm not sure about the maturities, thats a great question. Might be my DD part 2. Until then heres the ratios showing no concern https://preview.redd.it/xyu26uyn4i7g1.png?width=1444&format=png&auto=webp&s=948c42c3278ffd1a6ef06ddcb420c2e2769e6468 5) I'm not sure about specific legislation, + its both fed and state legislation exposure. But I do know what the trend shows. Here's an excerpt from my analysis that speaks to their risk management as it relates to regulatory risk "A close reading of Altria’s 10-K and federal lobbying disclosures shows that the company allocated $160,000 in 2024 to McGuireWoods Consulting, one of its primary lobbying firms. McGuireWoods employs G.K. Butterfield, the former U.S. Representative from North Carolina and a former member of the House Energy & Commerce Committee. This committee is, of course, the very committee with jurisdiction over FDA oversight and tobacco regulation."

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If a lot of white collar workers are getting laid off due to AI, how does that affect automated 401(k) contributions? There will be a long-term decrease in equities being bought up. Like it or not the stock market is a pyramid scheme.

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Circle k?! Sir, this is a Wendy's.

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Read again I gave Several dates including my expiration dates on options. MAY for Jerome Powell replacement Feb for 10-k add 4 months for another quarterly earnings. POSCO intended for 1st Qtr

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K-shaped Christmas

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circle k apparently

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Bro they give these away at circle k all the time.

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Considering they laid off sixteen hundred employees at their blue oval s k plant in kentucky.....

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Because we live in a K-shaped economy.

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