I’d wait till the rate cuts next week and c how the market reacts. Else cut it loose at the next bounce, most likely tomorrow.

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\^ \^ \^ JPM Analysis make the big $$$

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Intel might be slipping but my perpetually on 4790K ain't about to hear your generalized slander. It didn't survive all those wack water coolers dying on it over the years @ 99*C to be disrespected like that. 🤨

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Honestly, it may hit that end of year. We'll see. JPM just updated price target to $8.

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[https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/11/bird-flu-human-transmission-prepared-pandemic](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/11/bird-flu-human-transmission-prepared-pandemic) It's a complex issue with mRNA patent litigation, government contracts, production capacities and so on. I have written a lot more about that on Reddit and elsewhere. Take a look at Moderna, they would be the first to develop an mRNA vaccine and got government funding for phase 3 trials: [https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2024/Moderna-Receives-Project-Award-through-BARDAs-Rapid-Response-Partnership-Vehicle-Consortium-to-Accelerate-Development-of-mRNA-based-Pandemic-Influenza-Vaccine/default.aspx](https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2024/Moderna-Receives-Project-Award-through-BARDAs-Rapid-Response-Partnership-Vehicle-Consortium-to-Accelerate-Development-of-mRNA-based-Pandemic-Influenza-Vaccine/default.aspx) CureVac and GSK are also developing an mRNA vaccine, but with the licensing agreements and patent litigation it's more complicated: [https://www.curevac.com/en/curevac-announces-start-of-combined-phase-1-2-study-in-avian-influenza-h5n1-development-in-collaboration-with-gsk/](https://www.curevac.com/en/curevac-announces-start-of-combined-phase-1-2-study-in-avian-influenza-h5n1-development-in-collaboration-with-gsk/) [https://www.curevac.com/en/gsk-and-curevac-to-restructure-collaboration-into-new-licensing-agreement/](https://www.curevac.com/en/gsk-and-curevac-to-restructure-collaboration-into-new-licensing-agreement/) [https://www.curevac.com/en/curevac-provides-update-on-trial-dates-for-patent-litigation-across-multiple-geographies-against-pfizer-biontech/](https://www.curevac.com/en/curevac-provides-update-on-trial-dates-for-patent-litigation-across-multiple-geographies-against-pfizer-biontech/) Cidara is very promising, with a much lower market cap. Phase 2b trials for CD388 are starting this year. "The private placement provides $240 million in gross proceeds that will be used by Cidara to develop CD388 as a universal preventative against seasonal and pandemic influenza A and B, beginning with a Phase 2b clinical trial in the upcoming Northern Hemisphere influenza season. The proceeds from the private placement fund the upfront payment under the agreement with Johnson & Johnson and are expected to provide runway beyond topline data from CD388’s Phase 2b trial." [https://www.cidara.com/news/cidara-therapeutics-reacquires-global-development-and-commercial-rights-to-cd388-and-announces-private-placement-financing-of-240-million/](https://www.cidara.com/news/cidara-therapeutics-reacquires-global-development-and-commercial-rights-to-cd388-and-announces-private-placement-financing-of-240-million/) They actually have a company presentation on Monday: [https://www.cidara.com/news/cidara-to-present-at-the-h-c-wainwright-26th-annual-global-investment-conference/](https://www.cidara.com/news/cidara-to-present-at-the-h-c-wainwright-26th-annual-global-investment-conference/) Check out their website, they even made a video for Youtube: [https://www.cidara.com/cloudbreak/influenza/](https://www.cidara.com/cloudbreak/influenza/) [https://youtu.be/RimtrUVxgCU](https://youtu.be/RimtrUVxgCU) You can see typical press coverage below, but be careful about Novavax, they somehow always get mentioned, but never answered my requests for clarification: [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-stocks-rise-growing-threat-150800194.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-stocks-rise-growing-threat-150800194.html)

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I did the same thing this week. Bought one QQQ and NVDA put each last Friday at close. Cut QQQ at $459. Woof lol. And then NVDA at $104. Honestly probably should have closed both on Tuesday when IV spiked but oh well. Wish I had two 🤷🏼‍♂️. But I snagged two JPM poots and cut one yesterday and am letting the other ride.

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I got greedy right here, now I'm bag holding NVIDIA calls C124 expire 12/2025. I'm not completely fucked but this is turning into a bet instead of an investment :c

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>>>Therefore if ( IF!!) banks are able to hold those bonds until they mature… this chart is a nothingburger. >>>But if there are any bank runs or other reasons the banks would need to liquidate those bonds in the secondary market… then those losses would become realized and then banks are fucked (see regional bank crisis from last year). Work in banking regulation and this guy is spot on. Will add a) there’s other ways banks can source liquidity, b) this could quickly reverse with fed cuts and recent lowering of the long end of the yield curve and c) these “losses” have different durations. Meaning most banks can just wait it out. SVB was just a particular brand of cocky and ignorant.

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JPM

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In regional banks, CORE (non-interest bearing) deposits are draining. Look at the quarterly prints, I do, I’m in the industry. Money is shifting from non-interest bearing to high cost interest bearing. Regionals desperate for deposits are still overpaying for time deposits and money markets. Sure, Citi and JPM are saying fuck you to paying up, they’re flush and run a 40-60% loan-to-deposit ratio, 10B-100B banks heavy in CRE and unrealized security losses 90%+ loaned up are fucked. Well, not completely fucked, but in a tight spot. If they can’t minimize asset losses and shift deposits back to non-interest bearing, they’re going to be in trouble. Troubled banks according to FDIC increased again this month. I know this is a bit “trust me bro”, but…https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/us-regional-bank-deposits-come-back-under-pressure-in-q2-2024-82503563

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