[When you release WW3 just become way more likely](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS8ZOOR5Y27Gbg3Z318NqinkaDJTyBrIFoyVRHGn_vjAHpPfIbYwQRKE-k&s=10)
Tbf, it was really hard to see that Fed would ignore:
* 5 years of high inflation
* 4.2% CPI
* Accelerating core PCE before energy shock
* Obvious rampant speculation, excess and worsening K shape.
It's funny how all the top answers are from perma-bulls answering on behalf of bears.
I think the tech market is inflated. I think tech companies are using accounting fuckery to make their numbers look better. I think the Fed is gonna raise rates. I think the K shaped economy will crumble from the bottom up; who pays for the software if people can't afford rent, etc? I think the government will have to raise taxes to reduce the debt.
A 10% correction has historically happened once per year on average. 20% or more once every few years. We are overdue for the latter and conditions are ripe for one. So I wouldn't start investing into to highly speculative growth stocks until I see something at that level because they're all already crowded.
I'm ok underperforming. What's a few percentage points of underperformance when compared to the risk of buying at the top? Gen Z and younger literally have never seen a crash or bear market. You think a few months red from COVID is bad? I graduated in 2007 and the crisis that followed lasted *years*.
Perhaps ignorance is bliss. Maybe I'm wrong. Time will tell.
Rights now the dollar is rather highly valued because of the oil crisis,which by the way if it ain't solved in maximum 3 months the Americans are absolutely fucked.
Inflation from a combination of war,tarrifs and oil shortage royaly destroyed the buying power of most Americans,but right now the economy is K shaped as in the wealthiest consume the most and pay the most.
They might keep rates because rising them would mean making the US fed pay more on it's debt than it's army,which btw is already happening...
I feel like there has been a k shaped economy ever since the 1980s, the poor have been feeling it worse than ever... and it will probably continue without any monumental policy changes