America is the world's consumer base
Good luck getting the Euros or anyone in Africa to consume the way americans do
I love the Chinese propaganda but I'm not buying it
guys I think we will see a rebound next week and after a statement by the chinese gov and another after the xi-trump meeting that ends with a "deal".
I think trump sees China as an unfair trading partner, wants investments in usa, manufacturing back, access to chinese market. He gets pressure from farmers (farming goods export to china), base (bring back manufacturing), big tech/firms (access to preproducts, chinese consumers, raw materials, export for chips).
I think china wants a market for their manufacturing base, establish/further their diplomatic and standing as trading partner (that acts in the interest of the global market). I think they can't loose face by backing down (internally and to further their image (e.g. as a counterweight to the us). I think the chinese gov gets pressured by a worsening economic situation (export/production slowdown), slowdown in development/quality of life improvements, loss of world standing/improvement towards it.
I think trump already hepps the chinese gov a lot with his actions e.g. university/research defunding, restrictions on immigration/visas (china positioms itself as a alternative for "global talent", their braindrain gets reduced), eratic actions that cause marker panic or attacks on juridical system (us isnt a reliable trading partner, doesnt act or tries to pretend to act in the interest of global markets), withdrawal from international organization (opens them up to be formed towards chinese interest, lead by china e.g. WTO), attacks and questioning of alliances/partners (weakens alliances that would work against chinese interests, gives china messaging oppertunities and pull factors towards their sphere).
Therefore I think it makes sense for china to not react harshly to trump but rather put out a message that highligts they are a reliable global actor e.g saying trumps tariffs undermime global trade and the harmony between nations,... . Worded well it could give trump a victory -> china backed down, they can't retaliate as they need the us (lutnick).
That would calm down the market until the meeting (no reason to cancel).
At the meeting they could offer trump investments into manufacturing im the us (trump: china brings back the manufacturing and jobs they took from us and we reap all the benefits, china: we are helping the us to establish a manufacturing base, companies, could give chinese companies access to the us market by producing there, improve image), they could also open up trade in certain industroes e.g. cars (competition is already fierce, would lead to consolidation of chinese producers and make them more competitve and give them arguments to get access in other markets without restrictions e.g. europe). Trump and Xi would roleback all the restrictions on chips, raw materials. For china, a win would be some soft wording on a discussion about taiwan, even maybe a statement about an understanding between us-china on that topic (nothing specific, especially no mention about recogniton, military). I could imagine that in that context trump frames the taiwan statement as a reaction to taiwans unwilligness to expand chip production in the us.
The meeting would to a rebound of the markets. Trump frames the meeting as a success of his negotiation style (brought back manufacturing, got access to the chinese market, chip expors, access to raw materials, low-medium tariffs mostly stay in place). Xi could frame it as an example of china as an reliable global actor, helping the us in development, success to lift the worst tariffs, weakening taiwan, weakening US reliability as a tradimg, military partner and in contrast to china: reliable global actor.
Bruh, Qatar funds Hamas, plays arsonist + firefighter, and still gets VIP lounge access on a U.S. base. Calls on Stonks in instability 🚀🔥
Maybe VIX?!
I like big dips and I cannot lie. You other regards can’t deny. When a stock breaks down to a previous low place and creates a 5 day stable base you click BUY.
Xi is flexing, showing taco that China got leverage, exact same shit taco is doing. I haven’t seen Chinas statement or letter they sent out regarding exports imma look that up, but 100 percent tariff on China? Cmon lmao. Markets really taking that seriously?
That’s not even remotely fkn realistic.
Worst case, he hits certain sectors. Best case, he tacos. Base case, they reach some sort of deal that’s good and equally shit for both sides and move on.
US cannot afford a trade war with China. And China doesn’t give a fuck, they’ll starve their own people if they had to.
The only outcome that makes sense is some sort of deal, which is why I think he walked back the meeting with Xi being on still.
At first he said he cancelled it cause obviously small dick orange has to be the boss