> Everyone has now learned there is not enough consumer demand for big, expensive EV’s 1/3 of America rents. And most of them don't have access to electrical panels to recharge vehicles overnight. This means you're starting with cutting out 1/3 of Americans from potential customers. You can't make it up on the margins with a decreased customer base like that.

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1) If I change the discount rate to 10% and the on! growth to 28% it gives me an intrinsic value of $66.27 leaving all other assumptions unchanged. I didn't use CAPM or WACC or whatever cuz I'm regarded and wanted to reduce noise in the valuation portion and then tried to factor in idiosyncratic risk as evaluated in my in depth analysis(and adjusted assumptions in valuation as indicated from research), theres a link at the end of post if interested. 2) 60%,40%,20%, are highly aggressive assumptions to base valuation on, yes. But all of those %s are under historic trends, 40 follows last two years and is supported by softs analysis and 20% is under what the industry is projecting for the product category. Ultimately, its up for debate, but I have high conviction that 30% is a safe assumption and thesis holds at 30%. 3) Also up for debate, but research indicates that even for vape users there is 1 in 5 attrition to traditional smokeables. My DD is not that young americans dont use juuls/nonsmokeables, its that the idea that they dont smoke cigs is played out. Young people as non smokers is over stated IMO, even playboi carti was smoking a marlboro light in this music vid (nvm it wont let me link it but search 2024 playboi carti and you'll see it at 1:04 and on, then think about his demographics). With that said IQOS is def the future and will create some degree of headache for Altria as it is slowly introduced to US market in the coming years. 4) I'm not sure about the maturities, thats a great question. Might be my DD part 2. Until then heres the ratios showing no concern https://preview.redd.it/xyu26uyn4i7g1.png?width=1444&format=png&auto=webp&s=948c42c3278ffd1a6ef06ddcb420c2e2769e6468 5) I'm not sure about specific legislation, + its both fed and state legislation exposure. But I do know what the trend shows. Here's an excerpt from my analysis that speaks to their risk management as it relates to regulatory risk "A close reading of Altria’s 10-K and federal lobbying disclosures shows that the company allocated $160,000 in 2024 to McGuireWoods Consulting, one of its primary lobbying firms. McGuireWoods employs G.K. Butterfield, the former U.S. Representative from North Carolina and a former member of the House Energy & Commerce Committee. This committee is, of course, the very committee with jurisdiction over FDA oversight and tobacco regulation."

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Capitalism is running on the rich being the significant share of the consumer base now

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Few questions. 1) why aren’t you using a CAPM for the cost of equity as it seems like some factors such as idiosyncratic risk and size premia are missing? Also the cost of debt to get the WACC. The 7.4% seems a bit low compared to the high on! growth / high assumed base case returns. 2)40% base case growth for on! products seems like an extreme bull case, no? 20% seems like a bull case even, given pouches were a big trend from ‘22–24. My co workers/ friends were big into Zyns during that timeframe but I’ve since seen them quit. 3)Younger Americans (18-30) would be more likely to convert to Juuls/nicotine pods than cigs in my opinion. I don’t see many people smoking cigs routinely, but I do commonly see people sneaking in a shameful Juul hit in public places. 4)Total debt is high, but coverage ratios are pretty goodish. What are the current maturities? Also what % of par are their bonds trading at? (You said this is a long term play but still a good indicator to see how much lower it could go). 5)Revenues have been declining since 2020 but net of excise tax they have barely increased? Was this due to a specific legislation? The current admin is beneficial to the tobacco industry but is a 14% excise tax a realistic projection? I do like the high div as that will incentivize long plays and gives the company an extra lever to pull incase on! doesn’t grow and the situation becomes distressed. This is well put together and very thorough. I really enjoyed reading this. Thank you.

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Yeah, I guess its pretty cliche at this point. Call it whatever you want, lol, what I was getting at was - why doesn't Ford better understand its customer base. Same mistake they made with the Mach E by using the Mustang Badge. I think it confused EV buyers, and turned off Mustang fans. Similar to the Lightning

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Zyns growth is attributed to its ability to customer acquire from no tobacco consuming segments. It has captured younger, non smoking consumers. 1 in 5 tobacco users who habitually consume tobacco products (daily use) whose first tobacco product was a non combustible, transition to habitual combustible tobacco consumption. Altria accounts for 50% of cig market. So growing zyn consumer base is good for Altrias long term earnings

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The DCF is built on growth of 20% bear, 40% base, and 60% bull cases for on!, so yea the 60 is quite aggressive but the thesis still stands at 30%. I also had never heard of on! before looking into Altria.

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When I first pre-ordered in 2021 it was $39900. By the time they contacted me about buying a few years later the was base Pro model was $54,000 but they said I'd have to wait longer and they tried selling me an XLT for over $60,000 that I would get in weeks.

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I feel like if Ford is smart, they will get one of those battery plants in Kentucky or Michigan repurposed to produce energy storage solutions for power grids taking on large base loads from giant AI data centers. A lot of which are targeting Michigan because of recent changes in Michigan law regarding tax breaks on data center equipment.

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QQQ finding a base?

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