Bought some LAC calls on the morning of the rare earth crash based on a comment here, though my own delusions from the ABAT run I was in on contributed to that, then down 20% on digital ocean calls I FOMO’d in on based on a post here as well lol.
Edit: also made irresponsible position size decisions based on hype on this sub, can’t really blame the sub though, just helped influence some irresponsible gambling behavior.
META is almost $2T, so $100B would just be 5% of that.
Since /u/gorginhanson blocked me, I have to edit replies into this post now. LOL /u/gorginhanson is so butthurt. I guess he shorted the Reddit IPO? That why he's blocking everyone? Why is he even posting on Reddit if he thinks it's worse than Google+?
/u/Bojangles770 Really triggered you, huh? How much did you lose shorting RDDT this year?
Bull thesis:
1. When AI companies literally have more money than they could ever spend, they’re gonna want the best version of Reddit and not some scraped version. The AI competition is so close and so important to future funding, the quality of scraped vs. licensed data is material. Another round of contracts with their current and new tech companies is inevitable, expect a 10-20% bump.
2. S&P500 inclusion is also inevitable now that it’s completed all entry qualifications which will push the stock yet another 20%. The S&P500 with its recent increase in market cap req has some overdue companies it needs to cut.
3. Reddit’s growth is absolutely torching IG and X who both actually have negative traffic growth according to Google trends/analytics. In fact, Reddit just jumped from 7th to 6th place in global website traffic on Semrush and is within arm’s distance of IG who’s in 4th and chatGPT in 5th. IG is completely saturated and you’re either on it or you’re not while Reddit is just now investing into international countries.
4. Fuck all the other social medias like IG, YT, TT, X, FB, all of it! People are so done with not being able to downvote BS or not being able to speak their mind for fear of becoming an outcast in their circles. Worst you can do is “ratio” someone. The fuck is that?? I want to see them downvoted to oblivion! Anytime there’s something exciting, you will never catch me engaging with anything on FB/IG but you will get my opinion on Reddit and that sentiment data is 2nd to none. Which is why they just partnered with NYSE for sentiment data.
5. For everyone complaining about bots, Reddit is hands down the best major social media site to handle them because they’re so easy to spot and downvote. You see them all on IG but you can’t do shit about them. On Reddit, they get downvoted enough, they get hidden. And EVERYONE has had that question that no one could answer except some random dude on Reddit one day.
Long story short, Reddit may not completely replace IG but it’s going to be a helluva lot closer over the next 2-3 years. Reddit’s a bit behind in profits, sure, but you can’t convince me that Reddit is only worth 1/50th of Meta by market cap. No way.
Edit: about 900 shares of Reddit at $200/share
As someone working in a field that this type of Ai might replace I feel there would have to be some major improvements over time, try and talk to a chat bot for support, that’s stage one of these changes and see how unintuitive they are, it’s unable to think outside of the specific situations it’s trained on, they can sort of extrapolate information and apply it to somewhat similar cases but in the end AI right now is really just a decision tree, if they say Y I say X if they say M I reply N etc. The amount of training that the AI needs is ungodly, we’re going on a year of training and it still hasn’t replaced our email support team, pair that with this has to be done for each company that wants AI, for the most part you can’t take the AI trained at one company and switch it to another, as they run differently and as I said the AI is really just a decision tree right now, making it’s next move based off what the person talking to it is saying, which sounds great until you realize you have to train it on every single situation, our requirements right now we have to double check everything the AI does, and yeah that will change soonish but I’m with a apparel company that is in the fortune 500 on good years so I imagine what we’re using isn’t cheap right now and it’s practically useless, imo. Not trying to shit on your party but I personally believe the use cases of AI are vastly over sold. Could you imagine having to program out every question and response that a customer service interaction could cover? That’s what the training for AI accomplishes, but from my personal small experience it takes way too long to train, could you imagine paying seven figures yearly for an application that takes multiple years to train to get to the point of laying people off to save money?
It’s a growth company that recently turned profitable why is EPS your main metric used?
Edit after you added the AT&T stuff. $T basically has no growth or any plans to really grow (hence the fat dividend). Reddit is currently growing so it makes virtually 0 sense to use $T as a “reference”
I actually learned something on here a few months ago, that Spx options are taxed better, they're considered 60% long term, 40% short term.
Anybody else have any legit tips they want to share? ( not voo and chill or any stupid value shit)
Edit: my bad. Stocks only go up, bears bad, i guess
If they are SINGLE with absolutely AMAZING medical history in their family tree - can live on 1.5 just about forever if you’re frugal
Problem is most people with that much sitting in the bank make the mistake of spending too much too fast
1M is literally nothing
Edit not sure why the downvotes. You hit a 1M portfolio and cash out a lot gets eaten by taxes. Then you need to live on it. And remainder definitely won’t yield dividends or annual gains to live off. 1M simply isn’t enough.
The comment you made about how you don't invest?
Yes please tell us more
Edit: wait don't, you've already commented on this thread 12 times and Jesus I'm sick of you already.
I agree that they're overweight right now but I don't view it as just 5-7 companies. Many of the mag 7 have acquired a lot of other companies over the years. Microsoft has over 200! Facebook owns Instagram and Google owns YouTube. So the value generated is coming from a lot of sources.
Just like we invest in stocks they invest in AI because they think it'll pay off. Just look at how much social media has evolved. When I started using Facebook you could poke people. Now you can video call, advertise your business, create videos, edit pictures, and so much more.
How easy would it be to control a revolting population in the US if our economy completely shit the bed? We have rights and more importantly, more guns than people. We also have far better ways to communicate anonymously/under the radar than China, who controls the internet/telecom/bank activity of every single citizen.
China has a stranglehold on its people and a boot on their neck. Tiananmen Square and the concentration camps for Uighurs are pretty fuckin good evidence they wouldn't hesitate to just flat out murder people revolting and "causing problems". It also helps they have had a massive surveillance/police state infrastructure since Mao.
Jesus Christ, the fact that China is more equipped to "survive" massive economic downturn isn't saying that China is ***good*** or a ***desirable place to live***. I swear everyone here is retarded.
Edit: also have any of you actually bothered to *read* about any of China's economic plans? They project out 25+ years into the future. We are incapable of funding our government for another six months. But that's because we live in a democratic Republic where disagreement is not only allowed, but encouraged. I'd rather live in the US than China hands down, but to deny China's ability to get their population of >1bn into lock step with massive use of force and sophisticated propaganda is ignorant at best.
Fucking Christ, people, nuance -- it exists.