WMT is letting uber eat their lunch. Allowing them to mark up on their hard work to distribute locally. They need to tighten up on the uber shopper system and squeeze some of the free cash out of it. That’s what I’d focus on as CEO
At a macro level, let me explain the thesis you seem to be missing:
\> Economy gets fucked
\> Consumers have less discretionary income
\> Companies return on ad spend plummets
\> META, GOOGL revenue plummets and first thing to go is CAPEX (read, GPU spend)
\> NVIDIA revises forecasts down
all of a sudden your forward P/Es don't look so reasonable. There's a reason FPE is forward and not realized, that's the threat
Anyways, I'm not retarded enough to buy NVDA puts (COF, ALLY, MGM, LUV puts are very on the table though) but your prices are not extreme theory misses the primary threat vector
edit: sorry let me clarify, multiple ways to get to that last bullet. Model progress could plateau and stall and it turns out the diminishing curve of training models with more GPUs has already been achieved. Or model training could get more efficient and need for GPUs plummet. Models could also just never get good enough to replace people it hasn't already replaced until there's another substantial architecture breakthrough
Exactly. Think Uber. They burned money for a long time until they successfully disrupted the Taxi market and gained a significant (if not majority) market share. Now they can charge whatever they want, as they’re effectively the new Taxi service.
It’s what all these “disruptor” tech companies do - lose money while gaining market share, once market share is acquired, make your own prices (essentially the same price as the company that owned the majority of market share beforehand).
Profit.
Streaming services did the same exact thing to cable. So now in order to watch all the shows you were able to watch with your old cable package, it costs you more than the original cable package.
Shits retarded.