Keeping two nuts is your goal? Rebound in tech with Goog, AWS, and possibly META because they seem to have some volume at 666.47 but Google Glass announcements and AI Apple Sauce Execs, I'll watch. Maybe rotation into UAL, AGLT, DAL, CCL, IWM.
Although, maybe Trump opening the NVDIA H200 chips to China frees recipicle tarrifs. Other chips could buy, but the PLA dug in their heels.
The valuations on MegaCaps are part of the issue. For the valuations to make since for the Mag 7 they need to grow revenue ~13% a year every year for 10 years strait. Mega Caps don't do that.
OpenAI(Not MegaCap) has promised 1.15 Trillion that's on other companies accounts receivable. So they are promising to raise enough money to 100% buy out these ten companies.
Uber, Boeing, Pfizer, Deere & Company, Comcast, Lockheed Martin, Nike, Starbucks, General Motors, Target
There are so many ways this isn't going to happen, it's hard to pick just one.
The expected returns at this valuations compared to Treasuries is in the negative.
The growth built in to the magnificent 7 is like 13% a year, every year for 10 years. These companies are absolutely huge. They are not going to grow 13% a year ever year(For valuations to level off around recent historical averages and get the often touted 8% return a year).
For OpenAI to pay out the 1.15 Trillion they have promised and are on companies accounts receivable, OpenAI needs to get people to give them the equivalent of buying 100% of these 10 companies.
Uber, Boeing, Pfizer, Deere & Company, Comcast, Lockheed Martin, Nike, Starbucks, General Motors, Target.
Lets say by some miracle that actually happens. The ultra wealthy put all that money into OpenAI (We'll ignore OpenAI is behind Google/Anthropic/Deepseek in very important areas). The US just can't onboard that much energy generation. Period. I haven't seen any analysis on how they plan to power everything.
Now seems like a pretty good time to pull out. The chance for upside isn't worth the risk premium.
Just caught a trailer for the new Avatar. Life on that planet seems exhausting. Didn’t he just want to walk again and tap some blue booty. Just catch an uber ship back to earth, mate.
I'm on CCL's new Celebration Key with 2 boats full of people throwing cash all over the place, could hardly even get in the casino last night it was so packed. Long CCL.