I think you're seeing that aaaaall incorrectly:
You began playing roulette five long years ago, and now the casino is about to get you an Uber outta their casino.
A little more detail for the nerds like me: This plane was 34 years old, older than the acquisition of MD by Boeing, after which they retired the MD-11 line because it competed with the BA 767. These cargo planes are often older than what is acceptable for passenger jets. So to ground a whole line it’s an acknowledgement that their planes are ancient.
The difference is they are electric. Basically a big drone flying from charge port to charge port. So you could hop major cities quickly for “cheap”theoretically. Think LA to Vegas with no airport hassle and uber-like convenience. I wish it sat more than 4 though.
Is undervalued.
ATH was in October of $140 per shares. Right now were at \~110, jumping between 100 and 120 depeninding on the macro events the past few weeks. There are multiple reasons as to why $110 is undervalued for NBIS.
First of all: In Q2 ER they reported \~100% QoQ revenue growth and 625% YoY revenue growth, and on track to keep the momentum in Q3 and well into 2026. To be concise theyre supposed to go from \~500 million in revenue for 2025 to 3 billion in revenue in 2026. In large part to the fact that they signed a 17 billion dollar contract with Microsoft over 5 years. Which is roughly 3.4 Billion a year just from this deal alone, but companies like Shopify and Cloudflare are also NBIS clients.
Secondly: Nebius is not just data centers. Its called 'Nebius Group' for a reason and they have a number of subsidiaries of which the top 3 are Avride, Toloka and 28% of Clickhouse. For example Avride signed a 375 million dollar deal with Uber last month, to deploy a few hundrer autonomous cars in TX Dallas. Clickhouse hinted at an IPO starting at a valuation of 40 billion dollars, placing NBIS 28% stake at 10 billion alone (NBIS current mcap is less than 30 billion). Placing NBIS subsidiaries at a net worth of 10-20 billion without their main business. (Check deeper on Toloka, Clickhouse yourself.)
Third and last: They're just a superior company. Nebius very clearly outdoes its competitors like CoreWeave and ex-BTC miners. [They're one of the few companies to achieve the Nvidia exemplar status](https://nebius.com/blog/posts/achieving-nvidia-exemplar-status-on-h200-gpus), as well as they opened their new data center in the UK this week, with a quote from the CTO: “Nebius’s first data center with the first B300s in the UK isn’t coming sometime maybe — it’s live. First customers will start in days.”
Side note: NBIS has very high institutional interest. For example JP Morgan added 500k shares just now, and they have over 1.3m in total. DA Davidson just increased their PT to $150. Some analysts like Northland have a PT of $206. After the Microsoft deal was announced, Goldman Sachs increased PT from $77 to $120.
TL;DR if NBIS can show \~210m revenue for Q3 2025, I strongly believe this stock will go back to 130-140 range from current \~110.
if it lasts beyond thanksgiving there'll be no airline industry so you might as well buy OTM JETS puts or w/e and retire in january if u really think this
u want the hedge to pay increasingly more as it goes into further in into the tail outcome you're hedging out. a betting market doesnt do this because the outcome is binary and returns within 0 (wrong) and 1 (right) are linear. options profit accelerates into the tail nonlinearly thanks to gamma and there being effectively no ceiling.
it can always be worse than you think - if it really goes til jan 31, its then become much more likely it goes til mar 31 and you didnt get paid for this possibility in your jan 31 bet but your option would pay it.
It sucks though, bc back in 2019/2020 if you stayed on the daily discussion you could catch a pretty good ticker or short dd that would lead to making some big bucks. Cant tell you how many times I saw someone be like hey FB is about to announce a surprise merger with a company that should make the stock jump. Ended up being the Shopify announcement and I made about 10k on fb weekly’s within 2 hours lol. Also had a guy swear on his life that ccl was going to go crazy over the weekend and we spoke at length about it. So I bought a bunch of .05 calls with a 2 week expiration. I mean like 100 of them. Monday morning they sold for 1.50 each. Now a days you don’t see that as much anymore. It’s REALLY just a casino now.
Yes, AAL will lose revenue, however they will also be able to cherry pick the least or possibly unprofitable flights AND receive cover and a scapegoat (government shutdown) when they do so. In fact, this situation is ideal for a struggling airline like AAL: drop unprofitable routes, charge more for the profitable ones and blame the government all at the same time. Win-win-win.