Oh, you mean the M2 that is decreasing for the first time on record? Sure it’s gone up 150% vs the 120% of cc debt. But just 18 months ago M2 was 160% increased from 2008 and cc debt was only 100% higher. So why did the gap between M2 and cc debt go from 60% to 30% in 18 months? Not a disturbing trend at all. Not to mention the ratio is higher now than in 08/09.
Or the income per capita that has increased 50% from 2008 while cc debt has increased 120%? Oh the ratio is double what it was in 08/09? That doesn’t support the “zoom out” argument does it?
GDP has increased a little under 100% since 2008 so still a gap of 20% with cc debt. But everyone knows GDP is a farce in the US since we don’t produce anything. It’s just everyone paying for Uber eats and Disney+. Besides, the ratio of cc debt:gdp is double now what it was in 08/09
https://preview.redd.it/ihj39f1jhg4c1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=146fbb654ee5863cf638538a6ee555f917fa25d0
If anything dividing by M2, income per capita, or GDP strengthens my argument because in each case we bottomed out when the govt issued stimmies and have resumed their trajectory from pre-Covid in the last 2 years. And all of the values are double what they were pre-GFC.
But the fed is going to achieve their soft landing right?
"In contrast to the changing moods on Wall Street, Bernanke expressed a broad satisfaction that the nation remains on track for a **"soft landing**," a modest slowdown in growth that would reduce upward pressure on prices without aggravating unemployment. " (Feb 2007)
[https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/worldbusiness/15iht-fed.4605930.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/worldbusiness/15iht-fed.4605930.html)
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You can probably find at least 5-10 articles around the same year from Fed officials claiming soft landing in sight.
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" Although macroeconomic forecasting is fraught with hazards, **I would not interpret** the currently very **flat yield curve as indicating a significant economic slowdown to come**, for several reasons. First, in previous episodes when an inverted yield curve was followed by recession, the level of interest rates was quite high, consistent with considerable financial restraint. This time, both short- and long-term interest rates--in nominal and real terms--are relatively low by historical standards.[5](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20060320a.htm#fn5) Second, as I have already discussed, to the extent that the flattening or inversion of the yield curve is the result of a smaller term premium, the implications for future economic activity are positive rather than negative " (Mar 2006, sounds quite similar to Powell's excuse on yield curve inversion)
[https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20060320a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20060320a.htm)
So hear me out. I've come up with the perfect crime:
We should all quit our schools/jobs, move to Wall Street or Silicon Valley, and get jobs as Uber drivers, bartenders, barbers, butlers, maids, prostitutes, etc. Then we should become excellent listeners/eavesdroppers. We pool all the little tidbits of inside information we collect and make massive trades based on it.
If we get caught, we find a very old dying person. We pay him and his family a massive amount of money to be the fall guy. Then we all rat on him like the FTX lieutenants did to SBF. We later produce a kickass movie based on our lives where we're the folk heroes sticking it to the man.
Or we skip all that and make a movie about this lady: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/how-mary-ellen-pleasant-became-one-of-the-first-black-millionaires.html
No clue. I bought at the IPO and their new CEO is the perfect person to run the company. If you listen to him on the Acquired podcast, you simply cannot be beating on Uber
I need LYFT to be under $12 by end of week. If there is a god, please 
Hertz is profitable unlike many airlines like $SAVE and $JBLU. They wiped out tons of debt from bankruptcy. Insiders have accumulated close to 2 million shares in the past 3 months and have sold around 5,000 shares only. I argue Hertz is more attractive post petition than before the bankruptcy, especially at the current PE around 3!