Bears think knowing it’s a bubble is some sort of market secret only they are smart enough to realize. We all know. Every news site and market analyst is saying bubble. Every shoe shine boy and uber driver is saying bubble. Even the dumbest most braindead droolingest bull on Earth knows it’s a bubble.
We just don’t think it’s popping today, because historically bubbles inflate for *years*, openly being acknowledged as bubbles, before they pop.
railroads lost money when they were an emerging technology within the millenia old logistics sector. uber lost money in the taxi business which had existed at least 50 years. Amazon lost money by being walmart on the internet, a business that had existed since sears roebuck started mailing catalogs. ai is losing money on, at present, an annoying version of Google search that is pretty good at coding. no one started a railroad by giving everyone free rides until it caught on
I think it's absurd to claim that a completely new industry is trash because "it doesn't make more money than it spends".
It's like claiming that the railroads are useless and money losing while they're being built. Every single new technology in history required large capital investment that was greater than early revenue.
Same argument was made about Uber and Amazon, but look where they are now. AI is just an extreme example of a capital intensive industry.
And actually Anthropic's models are profitable on pure unit economics. If they stopped building new models they would be profitable instantly, but they're in a growth industry so they spend a ton on R&D to gain market share.