If there is more OPEC+ noise, like voluntary cuts from KSA or Russia, then Mumbles will do all the dumbest things.... price caps, export bans, windfall taxes.. the entire mongoloid playbook.
Oil and nat gas will simply explode.
Mumbles will play right into the trap.
We are literally at 100% LNG capacity right now and Sleepy wont do shit to permit more drills, pipelines and LNG plants. Nat gas going down not up in the US. I use UNG to bet. I am out now because a lot of Gulf canes happen this time of year. 4 bucks an MMBTU is crazy high long term.
But WTF do I know.
Boom! Told you on BOIL. Nat gas is a tricky bitch. My SLV put gonna print hardcore just like my calls Monday. I’m on a fucking ROLL! The pit boss about to come down and check my dice!
I'd hold for years to come.
The shit hits the fan next winter not this one. Plus Marcelius and Haynesville appear to be plateauing which takes a year or two. Nobody is ready for the US to produce less Nat Gas.
The real solution is to invest in oil/nat gas production and export/import facilities while converting your baseload electricity needs to nuclear.
A 14 year old girl thinks that is yucky so western leaders will never do it.
IMO, WTI in the $60s by year end, with Nat. gas in the $6-$7 range. Depends on China and Russia, so pick a different trade. To lower the geopolitical uncertainties, the way I used to play it, is to buy ITM calls on days of a 5% downside and puts on 5% moves to upside (like yesterday).
Ya, I do
https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/EUROPE-GAS/zdvxozxzopx/
89%. Target was 80% by this point.
There’s a couple countries who lag, some who don’t, vast majority have sufficient gas to see through at least March, probably later
Personally, I think the whole “europes gonna freeze” thing is a red herring
This entire nordstream affair, the “repairs” it underwent months ago, it hasn’t been online for ages. Europe’s been well aware of their fate if they didn’t secure alternate nat gas, and they did.
Suspect gas prices will still be high… I guess? As an aside, Gasoline is cheap af around me.
Medium to long term Russia is fucked