**Myth #4: Spending increased significantly, driving up prices, mostly because lazy people on government stimulus spent tons of money.**
This is wrong. We have really solid data showing that aside from the spike in spending in late 2020 that cancels out the gap down in spending in early 2020, spending is largely at the 10 year expansion trendline. The gap up in 2020, which was inflationary and created most of the inflation in mid-2021 (it takes about 6 months for inflationary forces to create inflation in the economy because of how corporate orders and budgeting and contracts work) and into early 2021 largely exhausted the consumer savings that were built up in the early days of the pandemic, and debt generation was also sitting at the 10 year trend.Basically, in order to get inflation from excess money in circulation, you need excess spending and excess debt generation (since credit and loans are how banks get money into circulation) and the data doesn't show that. It shows a gap-up in a short period of time which generates short term pressure, but that largely happened because the JIT economic distribution system failed to adapt quickly enough during COVID, and production gapped down and didn't gap up quickly enough to supply the market.
This is the REAL cause for most of the inflation we're seeing... not excess capital spending that doesn't really exist. People look at the gap up and don't account for the fact that it's spending that would have otherwise happened in the economy earlier in the year... and without excess capital spending, excess capital release can't be attributed as a cause since we're largely talking about capital that was already in circulation prior to March 2020 being the money that was spent.
We still have problems getting goods into stores and oil and nat gas are still under production compared to 2019 levels, and that's all exacerbated by geopolitical issues now.It doesn't help, as well, that we have a chip shortage and the JIT distribution system killed off livestock and cut farming production when the commercial market cratered in 2020 rather than reroute stock to the consumer market (this is also why you couldn't find toilet paper for 6 months in 2020). Oh and now we have a pork shortage, avian flu, and other food stresses due to other causes.
So we're mostly dealing with a supply issue, NOT an excess spending issue.There's one sector where excess capital likely had an impact, and that's real estate... so shelter costs are likely more heavily tied to M2 increase than other costs because REITs and other methods of packaging and investing in these properties likely benefitted more from investment pressure. Most other commodities require greater local market forces to maintain pricing (which is why oil collapsed down from $130/barrel... speculative commodity prices don't stick if volume can't move). The housing market is collateralized and big money bought up real estate through funds and direct investment return, so that can be tied somewhat to the M2, but is still largely a supply issue, but spending there has gapped up beyond the trend.
Now as banks become more certain of how much of the excess capital they get to keep, and as the Fed becomes more dovish at some point in the future (when is a big question) then you can probably start to see more money entering the economy through lending. When that happens, we'll see spending increase beyond trend consistently, as well as debt generation.
So will the M2 expansion become a problem without balance sheet reduction? Most certainly.
Is it the cause of our current inflation? The data mostly says no.
Edit: You can tell the people who believe these myths do so ideologically because they always downvote or reject the reality without a good counterpoint. LOL
That doesn’t really explain it. Nat gas has pushed back safely above 8, but, eh.. hasn’t been that much flux in o&g, not enough to protect a growth sector completely from a -5% daq day…
WSJ d00d with funny hair asked JPow about "cataclysmic market conditions"
JPow talking about "efforts to curb inflation even if it brings pain to the markets"
Bank of England speaker talked about "apocalyptic food shortages"
People literally freezing to death in Europe with oil+nat gas shortages and its not even winter yet.
France in stagflation, UK economy crumbling and cost of living crisis,
source countries blocking off exports.
Bulls: ***priced in,*** ***bullish.***
Fellow Bears, wait for bear market rallies (may last a week or two) that kill the VIX to buy long term puts. QT hasn't even started Nat Gas over $8 and Oil over $100 things are FUBAR, permabulls just don't know it yet and FOMO into every rally like lemmings.
you can almost see the market short circuit itself in real time.
it would attempt to rally, then commodities, especially nat gas, oil and food rise even more, then stocks falter.