The numbers in their ABS are worse but Morningstar, et. al. have priced in ~18% allowable credit loss into their subprime notes. Lots of their 2023 issuance will exceed that by some margin but the ratings agencies have upgraded the notes as we aren't in a BB-level default yet.
Of course this is all 2025-N1 issuance backwards because they've been privately selling all their subprime loans forward and their prime ABS issuance is showing their lending standards have fallen significantly to keep their sales pace up. Trade accordingly.
I try to look for the leader in each sector : Netflix (Streaming ). Uber (Transport) . Amazon (Shipping) . Walmart (shopping) Healthcare (LLY but Novo better priced). Music (Apple/Sony). Games (Sony/Microsoft)
Going forward, I then tend to look at entry points and cost per share compared to revenue/earnings . (EPS).
Ubers is significantly higher meaning it’s a better entry point .
Then we look at futures. Uber has 2 main competitors. Google and Lyft .
Uber has partnered with Chinese AV makers to use there vehicles with Uber customers base , meaning no maintenance all profit.
Lyft has done similar.
Google has its own fleet to maintain with no customer base , which is why they have partnerships with Uber and Lyft.
Uber has no real threat competition. Making my point, looking at Netflix’s future, it’s all competition with many companies (Fubo, Disney, Comcast, etc). You’re betting against Disney by betting on Netflix in a way. Disney is Netflix but with more avenues of revenue , no point in buying a company with increasing competition and one means of revenue.
So uber wins on P/E, lack of competition, earnings, and future growth.
Netflix wins on.. well they’re just the market leader in streaming at a low entry point . I think big ole Disney will overtake Netflix in the long run. I mean common it’s Disney . Netflix just had a head start. Disney is already acquiring many streaming services (Hulu, Fubo). Netflix is trying to acquire WBD but it’s having a hard time and I think acquired some other stuff but I can’t remember .
Netflix growth is slowing while Ubers is growing (# of trips taken). Both are growing revenue wise but the actual percentage of growth is slowing with Netflix per year. (Correct me if I’m wrong there as I could be). Ubers has only slowed since pandemic but the # of trips taken increases per year.
Also even Google says Netflix has slowing customer growth and intense increasing competition. I still like the stock though just at a lower entry.
Also I do think movie theaters will come back with some virtual 5D / 4DxD or whatever da fk shet that will blow people away . You can’t buy that quality at home.
Just a matter of who does it first: Cinemark (on its way), Netflix Nah, Disney (on its way) , AMC (that’s a joke). Movie theaters will come back but under new guidance and expectations. It’ll be more like theme parks theaters than movie theaters.
Sorry it’s long but that’s my thoughts, I’m also sure a lot of that may be wrong .
Even if you use the Big Mac index instead of CPI the situation is still better than it was in 20'-22'.
"Worst inflation in decades" is just exaggeration. Inflation in 2025 has been about what you'd expect for the 2020s.