it is fact that interest for mortgage loan has increased a lot in a short time. However, that is for the new loans. Most if not all the loans taken out in the last 6 mos and beyond was fixed rate loan. So they are not impacted by the higher loan rate.
What is different now from 2008 is that there were many adjustable loans with very little equity in the homes they attached to, ie. 5% or zero down payment. so many homes loans were defaulted with many risky derivatives attached to them.... so the market just blow up exponentially.
I see risky to the pricing of the housing market. it will likely to have a double digit decline in home values, but I don't see the implosion akin to 2008.
There will be a pricing reset lower for everything in the upcoming years. It will be painful, but nothing like the 2008 and 2009. The Fed simply f'ed up to let market ran way too hot and generated a lot of money and false hopes over the years. If you just look at the earnings from the retail giants WMT and TGT. The cracks are really showing.
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It is time to get ready for the stormy dates.
I think any investor with a significant portion of there portfolio should have reduced exposure right after the santa rally then reduced more when powell raised the rates then reduced more when china lockdowns and russian invasion happened. For instance when santa rally happened i was 20% cash when russia invasion happened i got aall the way up to 65% cash. Now im at 70% cash. I still have 30% in the market. But my portfolio mutated to what is trending during these economic times along with inverse etfs, i also got into weat because ukraine is a huge producer. So i barely have a red day and when the market is green my shit barely is green. But ive managed to beat the s&p by staying relatively flat while s&p is down 18%. You dont have to go all in or all out. You reduce your position then you buy them back when they get way cheaper. Right now id hate to tell you to sell all but i reccomend uping your cash position by selling some.if you're young and you didn't yolo your life savings you can wait this out. In the meantime try to save as much cash as you can so you can by the real dip. If you have stupid positions like tatto chef, mattaport, gme or amc, just get rid of that shit and cut your losses and just realize you screwed up. If you are holding rio, jnj, msft, citi, apple, cisco or what ever good largecap just trim a little. Would have been better if you trimmed before powell raised rates and started tapering (i dont know why so many didn't) the righting was clearly on the wall.
This is a dead cat bounce or a bear market rally. Call it how you want to but don’t forget we’re still in a bear market and the FED is still hawkish and QT is still on the menu.
this happened multiple times. idiots didn't understand there was a hyperinflation of the token supply happening to prop up the stablecoin peg. (300 million -> 7 trillion supply in a couple days)
once the token minting/inflation turned off it did a crazy dead cat bounce from the bottom. mucho gains.