Amd trades at 0.5 peg ratio much cheaper than most tech, nvdia is at 1.0 (still cheap). And their case is that ai demand is just too strong and will continue to be so, as long as they have a serviceable and competitive chip (which they have) they will keep cashing in with good margins (not as good as nvdia though). And as for cuda they are already working on an alternative called rocm, not to mention amd led by the brilliant lisa su. Risks exists for amd of course as for anything but the ratio risk/reward is really good i think.
Mu on the other hand is a no brainer, yes they are a cyclical as you mentioned but the cycle has just barely started. Skhynix and samsung the only two other players, but the three will be probably be at max capacity for years.
(I am already betting with different instruments on crowdstrike dying before the end of the year)
Crowdstrike is only propped up by the thesis of it being a growth company with exceptional margins. However, its barely profitable. They have only have 3.7bill in Cash.
Once that revenue cut hits in Q2 and Guidance gets fucked (they probably wont give guidance for the rest of fiscal 25) its already gonna crater. Then the Suits hit. EULA and TS won’t protect them against Gross negligence suits. They will have to prove that wasn’t gross negligence and Cali does not cap damages on gross negligence. In no fucking way will they have enough cash to cover 1/10 of claims.
Chapter 11 is absolutely likely before Q3. The only bull case basically is that Amazon, Google, Microsoft wush in and buy their stuff and all my lovely options and warrants get fucked once the underlying stops trading.
(The pre market rebound is just a dead cat bounce regards, this shit will die)
I think possibility is there with setting up PSX boot loader hijack by major retailers (Dell/HP/etc) of the laptops (way to distribute firmwares) BUT it probably excludes machines with bitlocker turned on.