[https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/how-jpmorgan-traders-see-the-fed-decision-this-week-going-down-and-market-reaction.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/how-jpmorgan-traders-see-the-fed-decision-this-week-going-down-and-market-reaction.html)
* ***47.5% chance:*** *“Dovish” quarter-point cut* — The S&P 500 would gain between 0.5% and 1% under this outcome. “It is possible that with a transitory view on inflation that the Fed sees the labor market as being far away from having an inflationary impact on the economy and thus has some room to cut,” the traders said.
"Historically, markets always go down after rate cuts"
Meanwhile the S&P is up +18% since the first post-covid rate cut of 50bps on Sept 18th 2024. We're even still up +12% since the December 18th 2024 rate cut of 25bps.