Overleveraged since '19
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UPS

United Parcel Service

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People closing their winners for the books. It's not surprising at all in my opinion. A Christmas rally after we went up so much already? No ... not really. The only play I sit on is a possible Netflix recovery that never happened. All my other stuff runs until March. If people read my stuff they know I lost big on meta and mstr. The rest went fine with ups and downs.
Im up 60% YTD, but down ~9% on the weekly. From the April tariff lows Im actually up 100%. My leverage is still pretty aggressive (for me, at least). I dont know if I'll be able to do as well next year. NVDA, GOOG, HOOD levered 2x ETFs have been insane. Down on leaps for Nike, made 40% on UPS leaps.
This. You will probably see this drop to 30 before it hits 100, but if you have the balls to hold for a few years, you won’t be sorry. I sell covered calls after the big run ups and buy long dated calls to scalp when it dips hard. You can swing trade these stocks profitably, especially if you are doing it in an IRA.
Thank you for your thoughtful responses. 1. My thought on this was just comparing the implied IRR of 9.62% (47.42->78 in 5yrs) to the discount rate, as I believe they should be roughly aligned. I suppose incorporating risk from the discount rate into the projections could work tho (this is something I haven’t done before and will look into). 2. That’s fair, high conviction is good to have. 3. Great point on the demographics. I often forget how different economic classes live very different lives. I wonder if there’s a US heat map to show nicotine purchases by product (to see if there’s a correlation between certain demographics and % of sales/certain products). 4.if researching more on the debt side, any convertible prefs / warrants would be good to know of as well. Similarly, if any debt is callable or if noncall periods have been elapsed (to get a sense if they can clean up the BS by lowering total debt a lil. I don’t think refis would be applicable so not too big of a deal on lock ups). 5. Both fed and state reductions is a good sign. Gotta love lobbyists being former insiders.
I hate alcohol, i love doing pull ups and dips, honestly im single af rn but lifes okay ngl
Hmm… I guess it’s gotta be working…. Right? In other news (I just hit 7 pull ups at the gym) do you think chips will ever be made in the US at scale? I've got a two liter of Mountain Dew reserve l've been holding on to for when it happens…. *ThomasTheTankEngine.meme*
I bought a Volvo XC90 PHEV 3 months ago. I’ve already put 3000 miles on it and am only on my second tank of gas, and the tank is still 7/8ths full. The computer says my gas mileage is 117/gal. Charge it with my solar panels on the roof of my house. It drives 420 miles on a full tank and charge, and 32 miles in straight electric mode. That’s plenty for all my kid drop offs and pick ups each day. I love it, and will never go back to a full gas vehicle.
Honestly that sounds amazing.  A small(er) ICE that can run at a constant load and speed where its less pollutant, more efficient, more durable, and less complex (no dohc, vvt etc) charging a battery that smooths out power demand and a 2 or 4 motor drivetrain with less moving parts to wear and drag (no trans, tcase, driveshafts) that provides high torque at almost any speed.  Maybe the battery is large enough to bother plugging in at night so a chunk of your low speed commute can be done in EV mode, but you can also road trip with only fuel fill ups.  Similar to rail and OHT heavy equipment, but with a battery to buffer demand since the duty cycle is more variable on a pickup.  Gee, Ford, why DIDN'T you make something like this for you 19 bn USD?
When a bull market comes to an end (during a correction like we are in right now), the previous market leaders usually lead the way with correction. The general market follows afterwards, typically after a few weeks to months. Coming out of such a correction, new market leaders will emerge and they are usually the ones that make their leg ups first, before the general market. So watch out for that. The list I gave are potential candidates but could be different stocks too
With a few quick ups and down, it was that price since 1030. I couldn’t trade it fast enough and then I couldn’t take any profit.
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