Bro, Powell had a press conference at the tail end of the shutdown where he basically said "fuck the official data". So I don't really agree with your thesis on being hawkish just because some data is being postponed. Who knows, I could be wrong. Anyway, fed cuts got riced in over the last two weeks. Wouldn't expect much upside (+0.50% tops) on rate cut announcement, but probably around -3% on rate hold announcement. Place your bets accordingly.