Gotcha. Then from the perspective of the MM, the 455 puts are pure speculation that as the pin moves lower a black swan event might occur as a result or from another cause. Thank for the reply, learning about the more intricate parts is a lot of fun!

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Black swan is cancelled, everyone go home

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From the gullible idiots that brought you such nothingburgers as *Ports are Empty*, *Regional Banks Collapsing* and *Rate Cuts Are Bearish Parts 1 and 2*, comes this season’s hottest black swan: *Hindenburg Omen*.

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Only two out of the, how many again?, black swan events we actually have had? Not impressed.

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IMO they are playing volatility expansion. Its cheaper than VIX calls. But some of the strikes can totally work for late December. 600 doesn't seem like a far stretch when Apple is 41 p/e.. its usually 22 lol. 455 tho? Some of those deep OTM are purely vol expansion plays... ChatGPT take on the SPY premium difference had flagged it as a GFC or black swan, so if its right, 455 would fit. Take that as a grain of salt tho. Isolated im like naaahhh.. but then Burry pops up after 2Y.. so maybe there is a kernel of truth.

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Didn’t crypto lose like 1T the other month, wasn’t that the black swan event or am I missing something?

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Tesla and Bitcoin are pegged, Elmo has been pumping one, then taken the proceeds to pump the other, rinse and repeat. Hopefully bitcoin falling is the black swan event that tanks the shares.

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What 10Y is way lower than last year. Fed already said they are going to print soon. So no black swan risk is super low.

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We are one black swan event away from the mother of all drops.

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And yet here you are clearly using Internet Explorer that’s like 3 black swan events ago

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