>2 yrs ago
That's your problem?
Anyone with any exp with options/investing/trading or those in r/thetagang would tell you that "the further out something is, the harder it is to predict". That's why you don't go ultra long on options unless you're fucking sure of it. How would you know that Feds would cut so much, AI would go nuclear, Biden wouldn't run, Trump would become president, liberation day would happen, and/or that corruption/grift would be the new cool kids thing? Answer is you can't.
Then there's the being 🌈🐻thing. That's always a tough game to play even for the best of hedgies/traders. Markets are LITERALLY getting rigged by everyone in the American economy for it to go up: CEOs, analysts, bankers, JPow & the Fed, the president, the congress, the judges, the SEC, the states, the governors, the ethics review boards, city DAs, the janitors, ICE agents, illegals chilling outside home depot, Santa Claus (with his rally), Blackrock/Vanguard/Statestreet, private equity, public equity, your mom, me when I'm with your mom, dogs who destory their chew toys, fat cats who gaslight their owners into believing they forgot to feed their cat to get a 2nd helping, etcetcetc. I clearly knew MSTR was an over-valued leveraged con within a leveraged con and thought about buying puts on it this whole year (maybe just to have some insurance in case we got a correction/crash/recession since it was the most overpriced piece of trash in a sea of overpriced assets) but reminded myself the trade off usually isn't worth it. I was right about MSTR, but I'm also not upset for missing out on the trade because my bullish ones worked out just fine.
Lastly, you fucked up trying to express that position with calls (hope you had them covered). No pre-defined losses is bad news. I would have gone with selling many short term far OTM puts to pay for longer further out puts. Or maybe just buy puts when I felt it went up too much.
TL;DR I'm pretty certain you didn't ask and probably wouldn't have listened to anyone back then. Just like how you won't listen to me now.
My gold is like Icarus flying high, except here he's tied down by every other stock in the red. Will gold carry everything to the moon or will gold crash into the red sea. Either way Im shitting bricks
Aye, let the sea claim me not, but the market shall bear my name. Spread my remains across Wall Street—let the traders walk where I stood, and the board remember my name with every tick. Though the ocean calls, my final act shall be the last dividend paid on the final day. 🏴☠️
The Ballad of the Yen Carry Unwind
Yo ho ho and a leveraged bet,
The carry trade's unwinding yet!
We sailed the seas of zero rates,
Now BOJ seals our fated fates!
Heave ho, watch the Nikkei fall!
Big Tech scalers lose it all!
Amazon, Google, Meta too,
Our puts will print when we're through!
We borrowed yen at nothing flat,
And bought the NASDAQ, fancy that!
But Ueda-san raised rates this week,
Now margin calls make traders shriek!
Heave ho, watch the Nikkei fall!
Big Tech scalers lose it all!
The algorithms start to sell,
Ring that volatility bell!
The hyperscalers walked the plank,
Their market caps just sank and sank!
Forced unwinds across the sea,
Our put options sailing free!
So raise your glass of rum tonight,
The yen's gone strong, our timing's right!
We pillaged tech with bearish glee,
Yo ho ho, the puts print free!
Heave ho, the carry trade's done!
BOJ has spoiled their fun!
From Tokyo to Silicon Valley's shore,
We're pirates rich forevermore!