Goddamit dude. It CAN be 20, it CAN be 30 or whatever else it wants to be. The fact that the SATS spectrum cost this much and that ASTS bought Ligado for pennies doesn’t mean shit. If the market corrects, it takes it down with it. If they keep their mouths shut about the unfolding and virtually everything else, the market takes the stock down too. God damit dude, there’s hundreds of examples of mispriced stocks and so what?

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so bag holding is now a sign of victory in this sub, okay if the sats are delayed price will go to 80 cause nobody will trust management bs again and I’ll be a bag holder too at that point

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When will they start making real money? When will they launch more than 1 satellite per year when they need to launch 90+ just to offer service? Remind me again how many sats they're supposed to have by end of next month, and how many they launched so far this year?

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> Quick search shows solar cells in space achieve about 30-40% efficiency compared to 20% for terrestrial That clearly doesn't account for either lack of atmosphere, or the fact that the panel can face the sun 24/7. > solar cells for space use are orders of magnitude more expensive than terrestrial cells ?? false. They literally need less materials. Don't need casing or glass. Easier to produce. See my other comments. You can fit somewhere between 30-60 racks in a Starship, even with the solar panels and radiators included. > you're outlining completely disposable data center sats Yes. That is 100% true. They will be disposable. But think about the fact that GPUs effectively are fully depreciated after 3-4 years anyway by accounting standards. > expensive supply chains What is an expensive and bottlenecked supply chain is energy generation on the ground. It's not just expensive on the ground with energy costing 10-20x more, needing giant batteries, more transformers, being a drain on local municipalities, land rights, acquiring and building the buildings, cooling, etc - but the main #1 problem is that the supply chain on the ground **cannot** scale at the pace AI data centers will. Period. Unless we cut the regulations in half overnight for nuclear power, and overnight dedicated hundreds of billions of dollars to increasing the grid by 50% - not happening. Building transformers is a big bottleneck right now. So are batteries, which are needed for large data centers to smooth out usage. Of course space has issues and drawbacks, but it beats out doing it on the ground long term. Long term being 3-5 years out. If you are a city/county - are you going to let a data center be built near you? Create a few jobs temporarily, just to have your electricity rates go up 30-50%? No you won't. You'll either tell the AI company to fuck off, or force them to cover the increase price in electricity. Building on the ground is going to get worse and worse. Acquiring land and building the infastructure needed for data centers will be the bottleneck. Acquiring GPUs won't be the hard part - using them effectively will.

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>Solar 5x more effective in space. It will not have to be massive. Quick search shows solar cells in space achieve about 30-40% efficiency compared to 20% for terrestrial. That is not 5x. Additionally, solar cells for space use are orders of magnitude more expensive than terrestrial cells. You can't just operate consumer grade cells in space. Another crushing reality is that solar cells have low energy generation density (~5 W/m²) especially compared to gas turbine generation (~1,000 W/m2). They are extremely unsuited for running GPUs in space. >They deploy racks, connected via laser. There is no "entire data center". This is a non issue. Micrometeorites are always an issue for satellites. Either centralized or dispersed.  >Maintenance is zero. Decommission after two years, ship with a few extra blades per rack if one goes down, or just deal with less efficiency. Completely false, could not be further from the truth. Why not take a look at OpEx for server farms. Also, you're outlining completely disposable data center sats. In addition to being comically cost inefficient, the waste of valuable unrecoverable precious metals here would be idiotic.  >50x cost is bullshit but ok. You can have a few bit flips in a model with millions of params If you bothered to do any research at all, 50x is actually a reasonable estimate. Electronics in space are hardened and circuits kept as simple as possible for a reason.  In essence, your solution to expensive land, expensive energy generation all, and expensive supply chains is to propose using even more expensive logistics, even more expensive energy generation, and even more expensive supply chains.  That's fucking stupid lmao.

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Urnm and space (Rklb, sats) both great plays

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