Never a bad time to buy stocks according to the Halftime Report, everyday the same rose colored panel

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We rose 2% off fake pump lies yesterday and now today missles are flying and it’s CRYSTAL CLEAR it was all lies by 🥭 and we haven’t fallen farther than yesterdays fake pump? Fkin bullshit.

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The Iran logic was flawed, because the market react to what Trump says he'll do, not how Iran sees it. Trump said he won't bomb, so the market rose. Iran pointing out that he's a liar doesn't change that.

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Gold dropping is actually a liquidity event. Gold also dropped initially during 2008 and during Covid. It’s people selling to cover margins and it’s the only the only thing that has gone up so people can also lock in profits. In both of those recessions the price of gold dropped sharply to cover liquidity and then it rose steadily to a new ATH.

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You know the funny thing, I wrote out the following painstainkly, and it was flagged by an LLM for various reasons and not allowed to post. I then produced some AI slop and voila. How did we get here, to the invariable collapse? Was it a sudden event? Was it the decades of deindustrialization, political corruption, and moral decay? Understanding the cause is important, but there's no time for that now. Some facts **The United States Armed Forces lack the military-logistical means to decisively defeat Iran, reopen Hormuz, or much-less achieve a modicum of firepower superiority against the Iranian state.** The targeting of American military infrastructure in the Gulf was a shock, and without that infrastructure we cannot decisively threaten the Iranians. The intelligence surveillance reconnaissance, air defense systems, air bases, and naval ports are meant to be a dagger in the back of Iran or any nation that may threaten the rich natural resources concentrated in that region. Without these assets, our only means of delivering firepower unto Iran is from Jordanian and Israeli airbases, and sorties from these bases are logistically expensive. Aircraft must be refueled over Iraq/Saudi Arabia, and we have a limited number of air refueling tankers which the Iranians are aggressively targeting. There is also an acute shortage of standoff munitions. A transition to mostly using gravity bombs, which we have in abundance, will dramatically increase that logistical tail, further reducing the firepower which can be delivered unto the Iranians. Of our two carriers in theater, one is in port because of a sudden fire which occurred, and another was forced over 1000KM away from the Iranian shoreline because of the very real threat of Irans standoff munitions. **America cannot win this war without a large-scale mobilization and years of resource allocation and expenditure. This will require a ground war.** So how did we blunder into this mess, and what does it mean for markets? To the first point; Key members of the executive are incompetent, and the military leaders of this nation are promoted through politics, not merit. The entire military establishment has turned into an incompetent bureaucracy. It is visible through every single chain of the complex. From acquisition of trillion dollar wonder weapons with none of the wonder to extremely outdated Cold War operational art built from the lessons of the Second World War, the entire system is glaringly broken. There is a fundamental point I need everyone to understand here before I continue; **This is not just a product of corruption. These people have truly drank the Kool-Aid.** The brass most likely dusted off a 30 year old operational plan, quickly revisited the axiomatic belief that American Airpower can do everything, and then probably wrapped it up in some stupid palantir/ai increases target finding. Combine that with the executive branches desire to prosecute this war, the reasons for which I will not opine, and you have the war which **ends the Empire.** To the second point; what this means for markets? This is the end of the international dollar system. This is the end of the long duration momentum trading. This is the end of the treasury market, hell this is the end of all dollar denominated debt markets. **If dollars cannot buy the Japanese factory owner the energy he needs for his factory, he will dump his dollars and no longer accept new ones. The Japanese man will then aggressively acquire whatever he must in order to get the energy. If he cannot get the energy, his factory closes down, and in either case, the unproductive American worker that does nothing but stare at excel sheets all day gets nothing, for his labor was ultimately useless to begin with.** I'm sure you have all seen the end of the dollar spiels from the likes of Ray Dalio and every bear. These people do not represent chicken little, but a build-up of negative events which have led up to this moment. The dollar rose to dominance internationally after the Second World War because America was left untouched with 50% of the Worlds GDP. If you want a claim on real manufactured goods, you acquire dollars. Couple that with our respect for private property and law, and it was a deal. We had a rough patch in the 70s, but shored it up by making the dollar a claim on Arab oil. All of these pillars are gone now. The dollar is not a claim on real manufactured goods, for America no longer manufactures anything except excel sheets and software slop. The dollar is no longer viewed as a respected claim since the seizure of Russian central bank assets. Finally, the dollar is no longer a claim on Arab oil because we can no longer militarily back its delivery. The dollar is dead internationally, what do we invest in? Understand, **This will not be a wealth transfer, but a wealth destruction.** All of the paper obligations built up since the 70s will melt away. This will not be the end of America, for it is a land of great natural wealth and, while questionable these days, human talent. Hell, this will ultimately be a good thing in the long term, as the financialization of the economy, and the extremely unproductive nature of it as such, will disappear. Now if you've gotten this far, what do we invest in? **Long term, invest in American companies which produce things the world needs, and which America has a comparative advantage in producing.** Think energy intensive, specifically natural gas derived, chemical industries. The oil and gas industry of America. Fertilizer companies. They dont really exist yet in the States, but capital intensive heavy industries which we have lost but will soon regain by necessity, not choice. On Hormuz being closed in the short term, this represents an acute shortage to not just oil and gas, but fertilizer. One third of the worlds synthetic fertilizers goes through the Straits, along with the LNG which makes even more of it in factories throughout the world. Nitrogen and Phosphate fertilizer will be extremely short, and there are only a few US based companies to invest in. Fertilizer is important as it feeds the world, and as such is extremely demand inelastic. US based companies are insulated from the Hormuz closure, and barring export bans they will shoot up dramatically as there is very little to buy in the fertilizer space and there is now very little fertilizer globally. For my own positioning, I have a large position in ConocoPhillips which I have built up over the last 2 and a half years (I started buying October of 2023), and I have purchased 200 calls on Mosaic (Sept 18th expiry 35 strike), a US based fertilizer companies. I'm expecting a 20x on that position at $60 a share. I also have 5 calls on CF Industries, another US based fertilizer company, 120 strike June 18 expiry. Oil moves first, then nitrogen (CF), and finally phosphate (MOS). I'm expecting the move on Mosaic to occur sometime in mid April, and those three positions represent my entire portfolio. The bankrupter in Chief will delay bankruptcy proceedings as long as he can, but the shock to the system here is going to create a rapid unraveling. Buy US based producers of real assets that the world needs. Right now all we're good for is oil, gas, and natural gas derived industrial products (certain fertilizers, polyolefins, ect).

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You bought puts after markets rose over night?

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Bro, I’ll bite. His playing in the beginning of the movie WAS stiff and basic. It wasn’t just about his speed. His band director was an asshole but the drummer didn’t grow and thrive without overcoming several emotional and physical issues. His playing at the end of the movie, in addition to being faster, was more controlled and more sophisticated. Most importantly he rose the moment and stopped trying to impress the abusive dickhead.

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