That's due to their production line only just coming online, and the fact they were selling at a steep discount these last 2 quarters as an incentive for their customers. Now at full price and full line capacity the revenue is set to drastically rise.
The rise of authoritarianism in the US will led the market to pump like mad, the gov will just take stakes in major companies and force deals while printing money, lowering rates, and easing reporting regulations. The bubble bursting could be the US losing reserve currency status. I think that’s a ways off
I'm just going to keep ignoring all the fucking naysayers and doomers, and just keep pressing forward. I believe in the future, and the stock market ain't crashing. I'm going to keep buying and holding, and I'm going to continue on a path to prosperity.
The market will always rise and fall with the tides. Always has, always will. Fuck the naysayers.
Great questions:
>Do other analysts know what you know and this is why NVDA is considered to be overvalued (even though it’s not) by the funds that are already pricing this knowledge in or is this yet to be priced into the current valuation.
Do analyst know this? I would say bears over do it with negative and hit piece commentary. That's still very much a thing. Remember, NVDA is no stranger to huge drops. I don't think analysts in large part get the power of NVLink against other chip competitors the way I have explained it. In fact, when I posted my post Nvidia the next day came out with this post ([Building One Giant GPU for Inference](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/blackwell-ai-inference/)) 🤣 which mirrors my post so... To me that speaks to the missunderstanding or not fully understood argument. Nvidia released NVLink years ago and explained it well 2 GTC's ago.
some get it, many don't. When you hear, AMD for AI and that's a real threat... <<< No it's not. Not right now. When I see the threat I will tell you. As of now, I do not see it.
The post isn't really just about Nvidia it's about data centers (CoreWeave NBIS ORCL DELL HPC IBM), Renters of large scale powered space (GLXY CIFR), power itself (SMR OKLO CEG), installers and OEMS (SMCI NEGG (i wish negg would annouce being a reseller or something oh christ) VRT (cooling) DELL HPC, clouds and hyperscalers (MSFT GOOG AWS), new parts and pieces (POET WYFI), Software (SOUN TMP), Chip manufacturer (TSM INTC (maybe one day)).
I am sure I am missing many like ANET and others but there will be many that rise because of this AI spend. The trick will be to lock on who is doing it well and unlike many others. That is where we will win IMO.
Futures are > options most of the time. Options only have edge in extreme volatility environments whether its rising or contracting after a big rise. Volatility is in a lul state 66% of the time. When VIX < 18-20 futures are better.
Honestly not much of a reason if were talking Dec / Jan, but for Nov 21 - the earnings hasn't been officially announced yet to my knowledge. The 11/20 date everyone is throwing around is the expected date - and from my experience when an earnings is far out and not officially announced, it can change a bit, so I wanted to give myself some buffer time in case the earnings date gets pushed back a little.
Also it could rise with a bullish Q4 overall market rally and sustained price upwards after earnings like $AEO from an improved outlook.
May get some more closer to the actual earnings date - but realistically Dec ones are probably fine and I might get some of those closer to earnings.
On a side note, I am also trying to risk manage and not full degen / full port into this because although the DD is compelling, life is never 100% and there are risks I've identified that are very real.
Russia is becoming quite confident as of late.
The logical next stage in their pseudo-war is to initiate a squeeze in some key commodities. Platinum is the most obvious candidate, although they would need to team up with another big player (notably South Africa) for it to work.
SBSW gang shall rise from the dead.