Jerome said AI play is spending loads more than retail is losing. This is the K shape economy
AI throws a rounds trillions
Retail goes homeless but the market only loses out on like $3.50 because of it
SPY 800 EOW
Sometimes, I feel like our 401(k) plans are becoming the new equivalent of mortgages during the financial crisis, along with the numerous risky derivatives linked to the perceived "safe" mortgages.
It will break out next week sometime.
Point is that about 1% of the SnP stocks are keeping it up, hence the Bubble. If any of those mag 7s or AIs crater, the whole market drops bc 95% of the other stocks are doing zilch. The other 4% like space and quantum and finance just interchange sectors. If not for the AI mag 7s going up, no ATHs, no returning to ATHs.
Sample size of 4 months bc growth has slowed down its pace tremendously since 3-4 months ago. And frankly, if it wasnt for regarded liberation day, and said tariffs, then it wouldn't even had grown as fast as it did pace wise from May to August, 3 months for ppl who entered then. If you took out the tariff crash, add the tariffs now, its not really a good market. Its a K.
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This K market is weak. SPY is still only about 1% above 2 months ago and 3% above 3 months ago.
It is a bubble, which is why it constantly needs to be managed (manipulated) back down and to liquidate bulls in traps.
But yeah, he needs the Santa rally so we're good overall. Just dont expect any smooth sailing until the week of Holidays, probably 12/20- it will start running 4 days in a row. In the meantime, he needs his wall street buddies to keep it balanced, to ensure that happens, and it only happens by these wild swings.
'When it does'. So every run up since late August= 4 months now just about.
Tacos market is a K. Its a fraud. 5% stocks keep it up at any time. But if any of those dip, it crashes right back down bc the other 95% go nowhere. But when D needs the polls up, he'll meet with the CEOs to see if he can manipulate the only good thing it seems he has going to new highs.