Did everyone leave the stock market to go to poly market. is that the better market now.

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When I checked the chances were as follows: 0.9% of 50+bps hike 87% of 25 bps hike 13% no change 0.3% of 25+bps cut Assuming 75 bps hike and 50bps are basically impossible we can just use 0.9% as chance for 50bps hike and 0.3% for 25bps cut You get an expected move of 0.009 x 50+0.87 x 25+0.13 x 0+0.003 x (-25)=22.12bps (21.86bps if you normalize but thats cheating a bit as you cant really buy a "normalized" contract on Poly) Because the contract cares about 30-day average Effective Federal Funds Rate that means that the hike only has an effect on 14/30th of the contract's value (as there are 14 days left in September). Therefore the expected average is current average + 22.12bps x 14/30 = 3.63% + 10.33 bps = 3.7333% The contract's price is 100 - the average so 100 - 3.7333 = 96.2667 but the prices are multiples of 0.0025 so 96.2675 is the closest one possible

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Word for word almost. But I think poly market should have something to bet on his nickname. Whacky or Whacko are my bets, good strong senile boomer terms.

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The CME FedWatch is based on Futures Contracts. This one is ZQU6. You can trade those at many brokers probably, at IBKR you just search ZQ and choose the month. The liquidity is very good. However, you can't just bet on a specific decision with the futures, you bet on average effective federal funds rate for the rest of September. It seems that based on the Polymarket predictions and my rough quick calculations the "fair price" of the contract is 96.2675 vs current mid point of 96.2638. ZQ has a multiplier of $4,167 per point so you can "arbitrage" about $15/contract. Subtract broker fees and Polymarket fees/slippage on thousands of contracts that you'll have to buy and you're left with maybe few bucks per contract. And also you have to fill all orders on Poly or you'll not be fully hedged so if there is low liquidity in the 50bps hike market for example then you're fucked. But you can do it if you want.

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poly/kalshi has smaller fees than a lot of options trading platforms tbh

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