SPY has only gone up modestly this year (12%) driven mostly by USD devaluation (-11%). Yet aggregate SPY P/E continues to climb to record levels because earnings have not kept pace with even the modest increase in stock prices.

---

Not even I’m up 50% in two years but I like the slow and steady pace.

---

Everyone has a feeling that AI is a bubble. It's too fresh, doesn't make any money, and is growing at a ridiculous pace. Problem is timing it, which is fool's errand. Market could crash tomorrow or in 8 months, or in 3 years. Best option is to stay the course and keep investing. Even if you invested at peak of GFC bubble, you'd be ahead now, provided you had the time to wait.

---

No, I'm rational and you sound foolish and stuck in the 90s. You underestimate them at our peril. And it's frankly fucking hilarious you mention state driven economy because we are becoming one at an absolutely fucking astonishing pace. It's even more hilarious you mention their talent coming to the US. You seem simultaneously stuck in the 90s and in late 2024.

---

No but there's $7T+ in cash on the sidelines and rate cuts make cash performance with inflation + taxes even worse. >In line with most market experts and economists, she said the pace of those cuts will remain data-dependent as the Fed watches both the labor market and inflation, and manages its dual mandate of full employment and price stability. But she added on the podcast portion of ETF Edge that as the Fed starts to lower rates, the roughly $7 trillion “sitting in money market funds” will **gradually flow into more risk-on assets, including stocks and bonds, as savings rates become less attractive.** There's also trillions in buybacks, 401k match, pensions, DRIPs, etc. flowing in constantly. Expect a very slow and gradual grind up to SPY 720 in 2026.

---

AMZN is the best company with a decent share price... But it moves at glacier pace

---

Yeah, companies spending hundreds of billions on capital projects, deporting immigrants at a fast pace and still new jobs are decreasing and unemployment is rising. Rate cut ain't helping this shit. Companies are spending tons of money so they don't have to pay people anymore.

---

It's getting to the point where I'm looking at the pace of historical corrections to see if the market has ever crashed fast enough to save my puts. The answer is yes, it's done that 4 times since 1893

---

lol, I think you are being /s but in case you or others aren't...it's never going back the genie doesn't go back in the inflation bottle. Either you increase population to absorb dollars or you literally must burn them out of the system. Raising interest rates only stems the flow of new money, and over time the money supply will get back to where it was. It doesn't remove old money. They printed 40% of all currency ever made, in just 2yrs...that's 8x the 5% target inflation for 2yrs. So raise inflation until it hurts, and hold that for 8yrs and the consumer will catch up. You can't do that and still have an economy...so here we are, still with inflation...oil is traded in a split market now, USD and BRICKs (of gold sometimes) due to sanctions...so yeah oil prices aren't moving one way or the other, and that part of CPI does nothing. Look at manufacturing...slowing. That means price increases continue at pace or more. Anyway, I pay more in food than mortgage, fuel, power combined for the fam of 4. I know food inflation is not going anywhere but up when immigrant labor is being expelled with bonuses for each deportation. Only going up when tariffs are hitting the exports in retaliation...farmers gonna have it rough or bailouts which wont help put food in the grocery. I think JPow should leave interest rates where they are until something breaks, cuz inflation is still here. On the other side, I own stocks too...so I'd like him to lower rates. I don't need him to though.

---

None of which matters so long as wages keep pace, which they do, and you can achieve a meaningful positive real return on your investments, which you can. Protecting the purchasing power of burlap sacks of un-invested money on a 20 year horizon is nobody's goal. Currently even a HYSA exceeds inflation and offers you a positive real return.

---