Imagine "Mark Baum" played by Steve Carell on stage arguing: "Nvidia is a great stock. A great company. But greedy retail investors took that stock and ran away with it. The company has lots of space to grow it´s earnings. Their stock price has not. There´s not enough money in the world for it to continue growing at this pace. 6 trillion on the sideline? It was 7 at the beginning of the year. Nvidia is at 5 trillion. Do the math."
And then the camera cuts over to "Michael Scott" coincidentally also played by Steve Carell. And he says: "So what if the economy runs out of money? They just do a stock split and then they will need half that much money to have it rise even harder. They´ll turn on the printer. I worked at a paper company. Forget AI. Calls on paper."
My humble take: if you knew this subreddit before, the curve will go down faster
Here is my journey: I was losing when I was longing stocks, then I lost faster by longing penny stocks, then I learned how to short, losing money at faster pace, learned leveraged ETF like TVIX and losing like shit. Recently started trading same day options, oh boy this is Heroin stuff and you can lose all your account in a bit.
So in order for Nvidia to release revenue and earnings that not only beats, but keeps pace with its valuation, what numbers do they have to post?
Because Palantir here is a prime example of how 4B revenue is not consistent with a 500B valuation....let alone 5 trillion for Jensen
The thing about bubbles is that no one can predict whem they are going to pop, it just takes one big player deciding to cash out to pop everything up.
That's the getcha, bubbles are not luvrative by themselves, they don't generate enough value by holding to them, sure you can leverage loans against them, wich people do, but that only makes things risquier, because once it drops enough to trigger a single loan sellout, it's just a cascading effect.
Right now, we are at 100 years to break even for buying nvidea papers, and their profits are simply not rising at a fast enough pace to shrink that number, even after doubling over the past year, it would need to continue doubling over the next 2 years to reach a human scale break even, if it just stops valuing, and it doesn't seen to be the case, as it has been slowing down over the last quarters.
No one is hoding nvdia thinking about a long term investment, everyone is playing chicken with it, and whem the banks and other big loaners decide the risk is too big, it will be a really big fucking crash.
SPY is having a bearish MACD cross today on the daily chart and possibly some time next week it will cross bearish on the weekly chart if we keep this pace up.
The U.S. Treasury is on track to collect $34 billion in October, according to a Pantheon Macroeconomics analysis of customs data. If that pace continues, the U.S. would be on track for $400 billion over a full year, short of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s August prediction that tariffs could bring in between $500 billion and $1 trillion a year.
These tariff revenues suggest that the effective average rate companies pay is about 12.5%, Pantheon says—far below the headline numbers, which average over 17% according to some estimates.
Yeah, leaps for Reddit is great, imo it’ll be worth way over 300$, in the coming years if they continue at this pace. Calls rn have dropped in value since last weeks, post earnings report