The market crashed last week because of Fed policy being at odds with market expectations

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According to this chart/history, bankrupcies should be peaking now and then aggressively dropping. Excellent news. New bull market odds at 98.9%.

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Personally,- options are a waste of money. The odds are against you. With stocks, even if the go down, there is hope they will bounce. Bottom line,-we can't predict the stock movement for one day, let alone future price.

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Go to Vegas. Put in on red or black. You'll have better odds than margins.

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Just because they both involve probability, it doesn’t mean they are both gambling. Various sciences and research in general involve probability as well, that’s why they use statistics. Are they gambling? Statistics themselves were developed to win at horse racing. Just because there are commonalities between two things, it doesn’t at all follow that they are the same. I used to be involved in archaeology and we used GIS and stats to predict where an ancient site might be. It wasn’t 100% ever. We would give degrees of certainty based on known variables and then do our best to account for the unknown. We would then go see if there was something where predicted. This was gambling too in the very wide way I think you’re using the word. Backtesting cannot completely account for all possibilities of the future, but statistical procedure in general isn’t meant to do this anyway. It gives the ability to make some kind of data derived probability statement. You can do the same thing with gambling. Difference is that those tests will show that there is no strategy with binary outcome gambling that will ever move the odds in your favour.

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You have better odds of getting richer gambling at a Casino. So in true WSB fashion venture away!

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>It is interesting that you should mention the St. Petersburg Paradox, as it relates directly to my current situation. As you may recall, I lost everything last week after making significant gains in the previous weeks. This was due to emotional trading and not following my own risk management rules. The St. Petersburg Paradox states that a gambler with infinite credit will eventually make money, regardless of the odds of any particular bet they make. However, in practice, this is not possible unless one has access to an unlimited amount of capital (which I do not). Thus, while doubling down on losses may work theoretically, it does not work in practice for me or anyone else without an infinite bankroll

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You’re an absolute regard and need to take a basic level of probability, and then some statistics to understand the results. On any non-infinite scale, the typical martingale you described ONLY leads to a higher variance, no actual different outcome. In any negative EV game, a higher variance here rapidly (idk check wizard of odds or use a simulator) increases your risk of ruin, meaning you’re done and you lost all your money. This comment reeks of a middle schooler who thinks they’ve “beaten the system”.

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There are guys who put 22 million at work every wed and thursday on both sides of the top 100 stocks in SP500 on fridays close. There are ways to grind out 1M most weeks on that, loose 3 million a bad week and occasionally...show a week that makes a year. Its all numbers and lots of playing odds . More than likely a triple long fund bought a block to satisfy a risk model. The NAV of the tipple long fund just went up, the fund mananger does not even notice that...supposed to be how it works.

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It's not a conspiracy you fucking goon. She is the most blatant offender, that's why. But yes, they ALL offend. Nancy just offends with 20 million at a time. Almost every politician in the market, beats the market. Warren Buffet would hire people of this skill on the spot. What are the odds, all our politicians are also extremely skilled traders? It's a pretty crazy coincidence.

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