NVO was bidding for VKTX and flamed out by not offering enough money. Then tried for Metsera and got rejected in favor of Pfizer for not offering a lot more money than they offered for VKTX.
It's either cough a looot more cash or watch VKTX go to someone else.
Yeah I kinda agree with this, plus I think most people are gonna want the pills over a shot in the ass. I can’t tell you how many people hate needles of any kind, just the thought of them makes people lose their shit lol I feel like all NVO did was make Pfizer pay $3b more for something that will have minimal impact on their business.
The data readout was actually incredibly good and was best-in-class for both efficacy and tolerability, what makes you think it was bad? It at first appeared bad because of somewhat high adverse events, but the placebo arm actually had very high adverse events, so when placebo-adjusting, the tolerability profile was actually best-in-class. This is why the stock recovered so quickly all its losses.
VKTX is the only one who offers a competitive solution for both oral and subq with the same molecule (NVO does too with oral sema + subq sema, but it's not competitive).
NVO just lost the MTSR deal.
NVO needs another obesity asset to remain competitive vs. LLY.
The only options left are GPCR (WL not competitive, same for tolerability) and VKTX (best-in-class).
NVO already tried to acquire VKTX but didn't offer enough. Then, they turned around and tried to acquire MTSR (way lower cost vs VKTX) and were not successful.
They will bid on VKTX soon, again, probably something like 18B which is a lowball. NVO will need to, as their CEO said this week, "dig deep in their pockets" for an appropriate 30B offer. Then, they may get back their #1 spot on the leaderboard and get ahead of LLY.
If this scenario happens, my expectations are as follows:
VKTX +600% by EOY 2026
NVO +400% (share price of $225) by 2030.