It's just a few hundie bro chillax I'm not about to full port my net worth into 0dte

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There are honest salesmen. Repeat business is good business. Every time I've ever worked sales or customer service, I am direct, polite, and honest. Most customers appreciate not being force-fed corpospeak and hot air, being hard-sold on everything from the second they walk in the door. They're there to buy, I'm there to sell, and we both know this. I usually end up top of sales, get plenty of referred business and high on net-promoter rankings, but I get dinged for not hitting KPIs like saying "love" 15 times or starting every sentence with the customer's name. If you're a walking smile jacked up on meth and you wanna buy buy buy, imma match that energy and show you all the shiny things and let you know how sleek and cool you'll be, though.

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Obviously mods only count *NET karma*

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Few questions. 1) why aren’t you using a CAPM for the cost of equity as it seems like some factors such as idiosyncratic risk and size premia are missing? Also the cost of debt to get the WACC. The 7.4% seems a bit low compared to the high on! growth / high assumed base case returns. 2)40% base case growth for on! products seems like an extreme bull case, no? 20% seems like a bull case even, given pouches were a big trend from ‘22–24. My co workers/ friends were big into Zyns during that timeframe but I’ve since seen them quit. 3)Younger Americans (18-30) would be more likely to convert to Juuls/nicotine pods than cigs in my opinion. I don’t see many people smoking cigs routinely, but I do commonly see people sneaking in a shameful Juul hit in public places. 4)Total debt is high, but coverage ratios are pretty goodish. What are the current maturities? Also what % of par are their bonds trading at? (You said this is a long term play but still a good indicator to see how much lower it could go). 5)Revenues have been declining since 2020 but net of excise tax they have barely increased? Was this due to a specific legislation? The current admin is beneficial to the tobacco industry but is a 14% excise tax a realistic projection? I do like the high div as that will incentivize long plays and gives the company an extra lever to pull incase on! doesn’t grow and the situation becomes distressed. This is well put together and very thorough. I really enjoyed reading this. Thank you.

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If you never lost half your net worth because the Mauritius Islands randomly decided to raise their rates by .25%, are you even trading?

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Being drunk as a man in any setting is a terrible look, extreme net negative

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Im not making any argument about 24/7 trading. Im only speaking on what I am knowledgeable about. I have written option contracts for a living for a long time. Im not disputing that institutions can trade when retail can't. I would dispute that institutions cannot trade options when retail can't. And so theta in particular is not effected over the weekend when they are trading. Gamma may change delta as stock prices move over the weekend. Volatility may get sucked out or put in. But theta is priced in during weekly time. Maybe this is semantics, but I often see the mistake that people believe time decays options outside of their tradeable hours, and it does not. Edit: I also have to reiterate, there is no edge to buying or selling options. Writing or not. Your own discretion and edge on how to apply selling vs buying is how to make profit. If you write options mechanically, you will net out at 0 over a long enough period of time.

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What I'm challenging you on is the use of debt.  Most world citizens would have zero net worth if it wasnt for strategic debt on appreciating assets.  Mortgages.   I'm super pro AI and leverage. But I'm not debating debt for the purchase of AI or anything. Disregard AI.  JUST in general. 

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>Weekend theta is priced in to weekday option prices. It’s only priced in for retail traders who can’t trade in the weekend. Institutions can. >And options are still an efficient trading vehicle. Kinda but basically yes. I’m not denying this except that institutional traders CAN trade when retail can’t which affects all the Greeks. >With no discretion, option buyers and sellers net out at $0 profit with no discretion over a long enough period of time. Yeah, duh. At least 80% of options expire worthless. What’s your point? It’s still a major hedge for the insanely rich whereas it isn’t for retail. >There is no edge to option selling vs buying. There is if: 1. You’re writing those contracts Or 2. You’re selling vs buying Both happen with extreme or at least very comfortable wealth. >This can only be true if theta does not crush over the weekend. Theta *always* crushes when retail can’t trade. It’s literally the definition of theta crush. Not the same for the ultra wealthy. They can trade when the market is closed. If not options but shares which can easily turn into options. Retail can’t do this. See point #1. If you can afford to buy 50,000 shares of $MSFT on a Saturday afternoon when the market is closed to retail, then sell 500 ccs on Monday morning, that’s a distinct advantage that the ultra wealthy have that no retail retard will ever have. Fact. >Which it doesnt. Sometimes it may feel like it does, but it’s just vega or delta moving against you. Good point, for sure, but it still doesn’t explain why institutional trades can buy/sell when retail can’t. That needs to change. I’m not sure why you think 24/7 doesn’t level the playing field for retail when institutional traders *already* can trade 24/7 and we can’t. It’s objectively unfair. Is it not?

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Define excessive debt?  Most people buy houses with negative net worth.  American government has a lot of debt.  Just saying.  

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