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The market isn’t even going up it’s literally just Nvidia and the rest of semis. Without the AI bubble Spy would still be chilling in the low 500s.
If you look at what happened yesterday you will still lose money. Stz is paying a dividend Friday. I bought STZ as it’s near its 52 week low. It then dropped 2% in 5h canceling out any dividend gains. On top of that I’m doing this selling Cc’s as well, and even with that and the dividend in less than 4h of buying I’ll be net negative for a month. They’ll only drop more.
The problem is when the bubble pops the good dividend stocks that are already getting punished will get just as punished as the pump ones. Just because OXY is at a multi year low and down on the year doesn’t mean when Nvidia -50%s OXY won’t -50% again as well. You have to play the bubble with a trailing stop.
Not really -- Your return is pretty low on this for the time it takes
Fuk NVDA. I missed the opportunity. I belong to the buy high, sell low group. Let me buy it now and crash the whole fukin thing. Get ready for the crash. I am buying it in 10 minutes.
"Thanks to the low ratings, far-left, extremist ANTIFA terrorism, my everlasting peace, which was working perfectly, has been interrupted. But worse than that, someone spilled the beans about SNAP being cut, and so, again, ANTIFA doing what it can to make me look bad. SAD! Stock indexes are at ALL TIME HIGHS, yet the liberal media says the economy is in a shambles. DON'T BE A SUCKER! Now is a great time to buy stock! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!"
They threw away hundreds of billions - but you were not investing in the metaverse. You were investing in facebook - which is a cash cow. The metaverse could have been worth $0 (probably is) and meta was undervalued simply because of facebook. That didn't change. It's the reason for it's valuation today. Companies burn billions on experimental projects all the time. They pivoted - that's fine. The reason it even went so low is everyone had fear about overspending without looking deeper. The other products they own were worth more than its market cap. People just saw one failing one (metaverse) and decided "nope" to everything.
Somewhat that, but it also means that there isn't as much available cash out there as people think. The money printer has been running in reverse for the past 3.5 years. Low liquidity makes the market violent for a few reasons. One of those reasons is that it makes the order book thin. A hefty order moves the market further. For example, today 1M in volume on a 1min candle on SPY moved it up $1. Another reason is that lower liquidity leads to lower IV on options, and increases gamma exposure for MMs. This increase in gamma exposure causes MMs to buy/sell shares more intensely to remain delta neutral. This increased intensity in buying/selling causes a whipsaw effect. (It is even more pronounced because a thin order book doesn't absorb the movement like a thick one would.) Anyways, there's a lot too it. I'd be presumptuous if I said that I knew how it all works. The above should at least give you a couple of things to Google and look into. However, I can also say that the old adage that "no one knows which way the market will go" is total bullshit.
Low liquidity doesn't necessarily mean that the market will go down. However, notice how increasingly violent the market moves these days?
Maintaing is definitely not priced in, but probably should be low
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