[This is exactly how I see our time's revolution against capitalism brewing. Bank runs on every non-legible asset backed by a currency. If I am on some govt list after this then fuck it we ball. Inquilab Zindabad!](https://giphy.com/gifs/rick-and-morty-im-in-you-son-of-a-bitch-gk3R16JhLP8RUka2nD)
Markets still riding high off the Japan PM Takaichi election victory. I find it funny that many left leaning redditor and youtubers imagine Japan as some anime hentai paradise when in reality its a conservative fascist govt that would make Trump blush.
Makes sense.
If the CIA made it, then they probably have some way to track it.
And the whole purpose of bitcoin at the beginning was to use it to buy illegal stuff, so if those folks knew that it was made by the govt, they would have ditched it so fast.
Were past the point that it would drop to zero if folks found out. Too many people hodling.
Everything the govt can't see..why do you want the govt to control your money? They limit bank accounts, how much you pay for an ugly couch, and why give up your liberties...yeah I can see people carrying gold bars and buying crack....
True in a way. I did not necessarily mean JPM CEO taking advice from JE to blackmail UK govt, but there's more than just CEOs. Anyway, it just seems like everyone resigned, just like the 'average' voter. I know it is not easy... spent 30yrs in mega corps, no illusions.
They're obviously priced like a growth company.
SpaceX currently de facto completely owns two large markets:
* The space launch market
* Useful satellite internet (Starlink)
Want to compete with SpaceX on satellite internet? Pay SpaceX first.
From a hard numbers perspective, I think the question is: **To justify a $1.5 trillion valuation for a non-growth company, let's say at a P/E of 20, you'd want to see 75 billion in earnings. So, how far away from that is SpaceX/is it plausible that it would get there any time soon?**
Starlink is estimated to have a revenue of ~$11 billion in 2025, up from ~$7B in 2024. They're not a money printer yet because they're still building up the constellation and acquiring customers (roughly doubled in a year), but they are already estimated to be profitable and about to be a money printer, especially when they get Starship to actually work (which, at this point, seems like a question of time, and not too much of it, given the demonstrated successes in tests).
The space launch business is taking off (pun intended), with the non-SpaceX payloads [doubling](https://planet4589.org/space/stats/pay.html) from 2024 to 2025. Space launch costs are a combination of R&D, building the rocket (some of which is reusable), and the actual marginal costs of the launch. As more and more gets launched on the same platform, the R&D cost is amortized quickly, turning into pure profit. SpaceX is estimated to have a 50% profit margin on launches. Launch revenue is estimated at something like $5B, but the growth somehow doesn't line up with the growth in launches.
Those are "boring" growth areas: They're already big, the tech is there, they're growing rapidly, and there is plenty more room to grow. It's not random hype/speculation like AI or space datacenters, simply "execute and watch the graph go up". The exact amount it will grow is unknown but it's pretty clear that it can and will grow.
Oh, and then there is Starshield. Starlink already provides the "talk to your cruise missile all the way to the target" capability, as demonstrated in the Russia-Ukraine war. Starshield presumably offers that and more, plus spy satellite stuff. That's likely more billions in classified contracts going to SpaceX.
They now also happen to have a side business in AI, which is a separate hype technology that everyone is trying to invest into, and has potential but huge uncertainties. I think the space datacenters are probably not going to work out, but if anyone can pull it off, it's a company that can get the launches for 50% off because they do them in-house. Another hype technology that a lot of people are trying to invest into, another potential with huge uncertainties.
**But I'd argue that the growth potential of the "boring" growth areas + govt contracts is sufficient justify the current valuation.**
On a more long-term/hypothetical/"feelings" perspective, they're the number 1 candidate for becoming an IRL Weyland-Yutani interstellar megacorp. Right now, this single company currently owns more stuff in orbit than the rest of the world (companies and governments) combined!