Sure, when the market goes up you hear folks saying it’s a bubble. You heard that in the early 2010s, too. But there comes a point where it stops sounding bold or even risky and it starts sounding insane. To me, the nvidia and ai stuff is sounding bat shit crazy.
I’m ok being wrong… as someone else pointed out, I’m not shorting the market. And I’m also not 100% cash. I’m making a decision that’s the correct one for me in my financial situation.
Specifically, mid 50s dude still working with enough net worth to retire today and be able to live on $10k/monthly inflation adjusted until I die. Every year that goes by and I’m working drives up that monthly number. Stock gains allow me to live on more. Stock losses cause me to have to live on less. My minimum annual goal is to beat inflation by a few percent. I’d like to be significantly higher, obviously, but I’m increasingly risk adverse. Right now I’m maybe 50% mix of stocks, both US and global. 10-ish% gld. Remainder mostly bonds. 1-year cumulative performance is 9%.
I’m not advocating anyone else do what I’m doing. Everyone has their own goals and reasons for it. My strategy is right for me…. I lost most of my money (which wasn’t much) in .com because I believed it. I also lost in telco. And while
I didn’t suffer massive real losses in 2008, I had >$1M in paper losses that took years to return to black.
Trade dominated market with a political class thats just out of this world corrupted, saying whatever makes things go their way. Gold is the easiest position you can build right now. If youre a short term Andy, ok chase the unicorns, but you can easily put some money to GLD, some miners etf or individual names and wait for the bang
Not the worst I’ve come across here. I’ve been looking at UUP, but I hadn’t quite come around to your idea of actually shorting gold. May consider this (but I’d be looking at puts on GLD). I’ll fuck with micro futures but I’m too much of a pussy with the margin requirements of something like /GC