Imagine having cigs for breakfast, drinking a bottle of wine at lunch, cheating on your wife, BEFORE getting rich. This has been my ted talk in euro GDP/micro economics. Follow for more
Agree, but if we undergoing a global repricing to deal with unsustainable debt… it would be reasonable to expect oil up too (with everything else) so debt relative to gdp is less significant. Metals have already suggested that. The devaluation of our dollar will counteract your gains, but it’s still gains.
>1 dimensional thinking. The Fed is adding water with a cup. The Treasury is draining the pool with a fire hose. But good luck in your operations
$40B a month is not a cup.
That's 1/3 of monthly QE while Covid was still raging and economy barely recovered.
But let's say even if it was a cup, that's all you need right now as we are printing well before a crisis, not reactively to one.
* Lending is exploding. Corporate issuance records are being smashed. Anyone paying attention knows hyperscalers are raising more in 2 months than several years combined.
* Spreads are unbelievably tight.
* The reason Powell stated they intervened was some warning signs in short-term funding markets collateralized by Treasuries. Those are completely dissipated.
* Every measure of financial and credit conditions show a very loose system with a ton of liquidity.
* Economy is booming at 8%+ GDP growth. Earnings are growing at 13.0% YoY. Layoffs ultra low.
u/Stack_Johnson
And that's all assuming we aren't ready to print more at any sign of trouble (we are). Believe me by EOY we will breeze past 7500 easily. I will put a remind me so we can check in periodically with each other.
We have 76% of companies now reported:
https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_020626.pdf
Very strong double digit 13.0% earnings growth. Forward PE that has actually fallen to only 21.5.
Economy is booming with 8%+ GDP growth. Ultra low layoffs.
Jesus this is like the most sensible comment I've seen here in ages.
You don't belong here.
We have 76% of companies now reported:
https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_020626.pdf
Booming 13.0% earnings growth. Forward PE that has actually fallen to only 21.5.
Growth is on fire at 8%+ GDP growth, economy growing fast. But stocks ran up a lot last few years and they're just consolidating a bit before the next rocket up.