Bro the US is actually on the better end of debt to gdp simply because our gdp is so explosive. I believe the UK is like 218% or something, the difference is they don’t hold a ton of US debt relative to everybody else
Japanese yields reaching 20Y highs while being the highest holders of US DEBT (treasuries). Their debt to gdp is currently 234%, the yields skyrocketing are pushing the interest payments higher which will either lead to hyperinflation of the Japanese yen or they’ll have to default. Defaulting on debt while being the highest holder of US treasuries is not a good thing. That true carry unwind will make last July look like a walk in the park. Eventually it’ll be fine after it unwinds but Japan will be giga fucked. So will our portfolios in the near term.
“AI Winners Basket” includes NVDA (not covered), GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, AVGO (not covered), TSMC (not covered), ORCL, PLTR, AMD (not covered), MU (not covered), & IBM (we exclude major nonAI outperformers like AAPL, TSLA, & LLY). This basket added ~$15T in market cap (~$14T ex-TSMC) since the launch of ChatGPT (~3 years). For comparison, in that same time span, the S&P 500 added ~$25T of market cap & the 2025 US GDP today is ~$30.5T"
SOFTBANK CEO SON:
"I didn’t want to sell a single share of $NVDA, but I needed the money to invest in OpenAI and other opportunities."
"When superintelligence comes, at least 10% of global GDP will be replaced by AI and AI robots."
• SOFTBANK CEO SON: I DIDN'T WANT TO SELL A SINGLE SHARE OF NVIDIA BUT I HAD NEED FOR MONEY TO INVEST IN OPENAI AND OUR OPPORTUNITIES
• SOFTBANK CEO SON: WHEN
SUPERINTELLIGENCE COMES, AT LEAST 10% OF GLOBAL GDP WILL BE SUBSTITUTED BY AI AND AI ROBOTS
Son is a true WSB degen
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/how-the-u-s-economy-became-hooked-on-ai-spending-4b6bc7ff
A little late but didn't see it mentioned how half of the us gdp is tied to ai investment, can't go tits up.
Why would I be mocked? Nothing online suggests there’s news to drop on. The nikkei being down 1.5% is a nothingburger considering they make up like 2% of global gdp. Find a source instead of making a nonce of yourself next time
No, Fed will print before that. Powell confirmed they don't want to wait too long and a growing, strong economy is enough of a reason to print.
Last FOMC:
>Steve Liesman: if you stop the runoff now, does that mean you have to go back to actually adding assets sometime next year so that the balance sheet doesn't shrink as a percent of GDP?
>Powell: So you're right. The the place we'll be on December 1 is that the size of the balance sheet is frozen.... And because the size of the balance sheet is frozen, you have further shrinkage in reserves. And reserves is the thing that we're managing that has to be ample. So that'll happen for a time but not a tremendously long time. We don't know exactly how long but at a certain point you'll want to start to grow reserves, to start gradually growing to keep up with you know the size of the banking system and the size of the economy.
