China could do to Silicon Valley (AI) like what Tokyo did to Detroit (manufacturing). Just cheap AI that is 80% - 90% of frontier lab capability at 10% of the cost. When OpenAI/Anthropic go public and report any sign of slowdown, this AI bubble will pop, the S&P 500 will crash, and GDP could go down considering the reliance on data center growth.

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Fuck my life, the capitulation's kicking in again Literally *everything* is being spun as good for the market. Rate hikes? Removes uncertainty, good for stocks. Inflation causing increased consumer spending? Good for stocks. Perpetual oil blockade? At least we're not in full-blown war, good for stocks. Trying to pump the brakes on the AI industry responsible for most of the US' GDP gains? Good for stocks. The biblical end times could happen, the earth splits open and demons and zombies rise up from hell, and market analysts will still find a way to paint a rosy picture. Ber ded, they'll let the entire economy crash before the market does.

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Economy is fine. Until the AI merry-go-round stops and suddenly -1% gdp

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we started a 22 month (avg) hiking cycle yesterday. on the other hand, nominal gdp is probably 6% choose your fighter

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6% nominal gdp, earnings & profit growth for the largest US companies, momentary relief on oil normal stuff bud, read a newspaper

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Not sure on that. They pushed it to 2029 so we're just going to cook 4 percent inflation for a bit then magically fix it with 3 rate hikes in a few weeks then chill it off? What catalyst will actually fix this? Fomc minutes put that on GDP gains from ai and productivity from that too. We have zero evidence of either. Says right in the minutes, if that doesn't hold, stocks will suffer. I think we have been running through inventories and people are buying extra of what they need in anticipation of bullshit such as oil. If corporate profits hold up despite all these headwinds into next year maybe it evens out, but this looks incredibly foolish for markets.

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if rates were 1%, the deficit would be literally 1 trillion lower if rates were 10%, the deficit would be 3 trillion higher (printing like 10% of GDP per year and handing to rich bondholders)

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Italy is lovely but it is absolutely not about to boom economically. They have a demographic crisis and they're projected to have the lowest GDP growth in the G20 over the next 2 decades.

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They'll choose stagflation for the public while keeping rates below the 5-6% we really need this year for treasuries to become competitive with tech-hyperscaler bonds. This will allow stagflation to hurt the public, help the companies bottom lines and stock market value, and still allow GDP to expand from the only companies pushing it up: AI and tech hyper-scalers.

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Us tax payers bail out or they all go in deep recession with whole world. I was looking into some numbers about us debt, if they don't prop up ai bubble, by 2030, intrest of debt would be unpayable (if they issue bonds above 4.8+ %) or they cut off healthcare or defense or social security or food stamps Crazy fucking thing is 50-60% GDP growth is ai infrastructure (not even profit)

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