Shutdown hurt GDP but those numbers are hidden. Running down hundreds of billions in the TGA, however, amounts to ‘shadow QE’ and could very well juice financial conditions.
It’s the bond market you need to watch. Right now they’re asking themselves if buying Argentina means becoming Argentina.
I mean we could fix it actually... the solution is just to remove all tariffs and restrictions on China. that is what China is asking for, and in my estimation we have to do that because if we don't do that our economy is done, our government is done and our country is done.
The federal government's ability to pay its debt is now directly correlated to the price of Nvidia. if the semiconductor stocks go down, there will not be enough capital gains tax, and the bond markets will crash because our debt to GDP ratio will go from something like 7% to 25% immediately. and that is the end, game over.
“POTUS announces massive tariffs and continuation of trade war with our largest trading partner and supplier of essential materials for the one sector driving the economy, markets, and GDP massively higher”
Yeah, no major news
Fun fact: GDP excluding data centers was .10%. And that’s the juiced GDP we’re talking. When the ai bubble bursts (this may not be it) it’s going to get funky. After today, if you still have money left, please hedge your portfolios.
People have been saying that for the entire year, while Japan has shown you can sustain an economy with a ridiculous debt to GDP (while not even being the worldwide default currency) and when the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession it is always bullish, all of the additional debt pumping into the economy has to go somewhere, so it will inflate assets unless major economies start cutting or there is a tremrndous asset destroying event like hurricanes wiping out Miami.
China announced they were tightening control over rare Earth metals earlier in the week. This was already bad news for the US economy since our GDP growth this year is 98% data centers which, you guessed it, rely on those metals. In 2024, the US got 75% of their rare Earth metals from China.
On Friday the anointed one posted on social media that China was being aggressive and he would raise tariffs on China as if he has a shred of control in this battle. It was a perfect catalyst for profit takers to cash out instead of keeping the charade going.
This market has a way of ignoring bad news so it might bounce back on Monday. This news is really really bad though so it might end the circle jerk of AI and AI adjacent stocks climbing on speculation. Crypto crashed harder because like AI, nobody has demonstrated it's value
GDP numbers China provides are showing that. If they were not in poverty they would not be doing manual work that is being outsourced to China.
Why are smartphone assembly lines being built in China? Shoes? Clothes?
Do you know any developed country where people are lining up to jobs that pay that low?
China gdp fake by round 20 percent. About 60 percent China look like 1800s. No water. Road. Electric. 3rd world country. They no even make jet engine yet. No innovation. Steal everything. Reverse engineer. Soldiers so poor take fuel missiles make hot pot. As say go. Russia now prove true. Get ass handed Ukraine. East country overestimate ability. West underestimate ability.
